Chinese Media Criticizes India: "Can't Even Conduct Census, Yet Claims Number One"

UN Population Outlook Report Gains Attention Locally
Chinese Media Question India's Demographic Dividend Effect

China is casting a check against India, which has relinquished its position as a 'population giant.' Although the trend shows India surpassing China in population numbers, it is argued that considering factors such as average education level and employment rate, it is difficult to expect a population dividend effect sufficient to drive substantial economic growth. Additionally, it pointed out that India has not conducted its own population census since 2011.

On the 19th, local media including China's state-run Global Times and economic outlet Caijing cited the UN's '2023 World Population Prospects Report,' which forecasts that India's population will surpass China's by mid-year. On the same day, the UN predicted that India's population will reach 1.428 billion by mid-2023, exceeding China's 1.225 billion, making India the most populous country in the world. This revises the previous report released last year, which had specified the crossover date as April 14, 2023, to a more general 'mid-year.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Caijing commented, "The UN has become much more cautious and did not specify an exact date or time," adding, "Even the Indian government does not have the latest statistics, so the timing of the population crossover remains a mystery." It particularly pointed out that India failed to conduct its decennial census in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving its official population statistics frozen at 2011. It further explained, "Nine Indian states are scheduled to hold elections this year, and a nationwide general election is set for next year, so the next population census is likely to be postponed until after these events."

It also forecasted that the population dividend effect, which has driven China's economic growth, would be difficult to realize in India. The population dividend effect refers to the economic growth boost resulting from a high proportion of the working-age population within the total population. Citing Professor Huang Yinghong of India's Jindal Global University, Caijing noted, "For a population to convert into a dividend, quality education and national industries are necessary," adding, "Moreover, only 10% of working-age women in India are employed, and the overall labor force participation rate is just 40%." Liu Zhongyi, Secretary-General of the China-South Asia Cooperation Research Center at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, argued, "If India, which sees 12 million people reach working age annually, cannot create sufficient jobs, the population dividend could become a statistical disaster." The Global Times also quoted Yuan Xin, a professor in the Department of Economics at Nankai University, who explained, "Whether India can truly reap the population dividend depends on the future path and mode of its economic and social development."

The issue was also mentioned during a regular briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In response to a question from French media about reports that India would surpass China's population, spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at the briefing on the 19th, "The population dividend depends not only on the total population but also on quality and talent," emphasizing, "China's population exceeds 1.4 billion, with 900 million in the working-age group, and their average years of education is 10.9 years." He also conveyed a past statement by former Premier Li Keqiang, saying, "The population dividend has not disappeared, and the talent dividend has materialized as a powerful driving force for development."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.