[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Did North Korea Launch a Solid-Fuel ICBM?

Missile apex altitude formed below 3000 km
Single separation detected with lower propulsion and upper section separating

North Korea test-fired a new ballistic missile of medium-range or longer into the East Sea on the 13th. The possibility of a test launch of a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) cannot be ruled out.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "At around 7:23 a.m. on the day, we detected one medium-range or longer ballistic missile launched from near Pyongyang toward the East Sea," adding, "It was launched at a higher-than-normal angle and flew about 1,000 km before falling into the East Sea."

According to the classification criteria where missiles with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km are considered intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and those over 5,500 km are classified as ICBMs, this missile appears to have IRBM-level or higher capabilities.

The missile's apogee was reported to be below 3,000 km. North Korea's Hwasong-17 ICBM, launched on the 16th of last month, reached an apogee of over 6,000 km, which is significantly higher. It is also known that during the flight, the missile's lower propulsion section and upper part separated in a single-stage separation.

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official said, "Based on the analysis so far, it is believed that a new system of IRBM-level or higher ballistic missile was launched," and added, "It is evaluated as one of the various weapon systems revealed during the military parade."

Some speculate that there is also a possibility of a test launch of a solid-fueled ICBM. If North Korea has test-fired a solid-fueled ballistic missile, this would be the first time. It is possible that after launching an ICBM, they adjusted the ascent altitude and flight distance. North Korea unveiled a new solid-fueled ICBM at the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army on February 8.

After firing a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) on December 18 last year, North Korea claimed the missile was a "satellite test item" and declared it would complete preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite by April this year.

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official said, "They may have tested some parts of the reconnaissance satellite (such as sensors)," and added, "It could be an initial stage test for launching a satellite," leaving the possibility open.

North Korea's ballistic missile launch was the ninth this year and came 17 days after the short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) launch on the 27th of last month. The most recent medium-range or longer launch was the Hwasong-17 ICBM on the 16th of last month.

This missile launch occurred six days after North Korea stopped responding to regular calls through the inter-Korean joint liaison office and military communication lines in the West and East Seas since the 7th. There are also views that North Korea is trying to push the situation into a full-scale "strong versus strong" confrontation by cutting off communication lines with the South and provoking through such actions.

Additionally, the day was two days before the 111th anniversary of the Day of the Sun (April 15), which marks Kim Il-sung's birthday in North Korea, and also the 11th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's official rise to power as the first chairman of the National Defense Commission.

A Joint Chiefs of Staff official said, "It is likely to be a move to showcase nuclear power and strengthen internal unity ahead of Kim Il-sung's birthday and other events, as well as a reaction against the extended deterrence of the South Korea-U.S. alliance."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.