[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North's Communication Refusal... Provocation Steps Anticipated

North's East-West Sea Military Communication Line Unresponsive Until Afternoon of 11th
Possibility of Military Provocation Due to Our Government's Tough Response

North Korea has not responded to the regular calls on the East-West Sea military communication line as of the afternoon of the 11th. This is the first time in over two days that communication with North Korea has been cut off since October 4, 2021. Despite heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula following the current administration's inauguration, North Korea had been responding to regular calls.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Ministry of National Defense on the day, North Korea did not answer the military communication line opening call at 4 p.m. The Ministry of National Defense uses the East-West Sea military communication line for calls at 9 a.m. to start work and 4 p.m. to end work every day. The Ministry of Unification communicates through the inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office channel, conducting opening calls at 9 a.m. and closing calls at 5 p.m. on weekdays.

As North Korea has not responded to regular communications for five consecutive days, there is growing analysis that it is deliberately refusing communication in protest against recent South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the United Nations' North Korea human rights report. In response, on the same day, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se issued a statement directly in front of cameras, taking the lead in pressuring North Korea as it continued to ignore inter-Korean contact channels such as the Joint Liaison Office and military communication lines and unauthorized use of the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

In his statement, Minister Kwon expressed strong regret over North Korea's unresponsiveness to contact channels, calling it a "unilateral and irresponsible attitude," and warned strongly that "this will ultimately isolate North Korea itself and put it in an even more difficult situation." He also condemned North Korea's unauthorized use of Kaesong Industrial Complex facilities and said, "We will take all possible measures, including legal actions, to hold them accountable."

This is the first time in about 10 years since former Minister Ryu Gil-jae issued a statement in his own name in July 2013 that the Unification Minister has released a statement. It is considered unusual for the Unification Minister to issue a statement expressing regret and condemnation rather than dialogue with North Korea, as in this case.

There are also forecasts that North Korea’s refusal to respond to the communication line could lead to military provocations. In fact, the Korean Central News Agency reported on the same day that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un emphasized the need to "expand war deterrence more practically and offensively and operate it effectively." Analysts interpret the war deterrence mentioned by Chairman Kim as referring to nuclear forces. Notably, a photo distributed by KCNA of the meeting shows Chairman Kim pointing with his finger to some western and southern parts of the map of the Republic of Korea, drawing attention. The location on the map is presumed to be around Pyeongtaek Camp Humphreys, a U.S. military base in South Korea.

North Korea’s provocation is expected as early as this week. April 15 is the Day of the Sun, the birthday of Kim Il-sung, which North Korea considers the "greatest national holiday." North Korea has carried out provocations around the Day of the Sun every year. Last year, it fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea the day after the Day of the Sun. Especially since North Korea has declared it will "launch reconnaissance satellites in April," there is a possibility it may use the satellite launch as a pretext for intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) provocations.

In August 2021, North Korea also cut off the military communication line and the inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office channel and staged military demonstrations, citing the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in the second half of the year as a pretext. In October of the same year, it launched one submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the sea east of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, into the East Sea. This was the first time North Korea conducted an underwater launch using an actual submarine.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.