[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] ICBM or 7th Nuclear Test... Korea Peninsula's 'Turbulent April'

North Korea Announces Military Reconnaissance Satellite Launch This Month
Internal Event, External Marked by South Korea-US Summit

North Korea is expected to carry out high-intensity provocations this month, such as test-firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the U.S. mainland or conducting a seventh nuclear test. This month features several North Korean anniversaries that can strengthen internal unity, and with major diplomatic and security events like the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the South Korea-U.S. summit occurring consecutively, experts analyze that North Korea has sufficient justification for provocations.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The United Nations Security Council prohibits launches of space launch vehicles and ICBMs because they are technically almost identical. However, North Korea already announced last year that it would launch its first "military reconnaissance satellite" by this month. The North Korean National Aerospace Development Administration declared at the 8th Party Congress in January 2021 that "the first unit will be ready by April 2023." Because of this, there is speculation that North Korea may resume ICBM provocations under the pretext of space launch vehicles. The new ICBM North Korea has showcased, the Hwasong-17, has never been flown at a normal angle (30?45 degrees), so there is a possibility that this provocation will involve a normal angle launch to demonstrate its performance. Until now, North Korea has only conducted high-angle (above 45 degrees) launches, firing missiles nearly vertically. A normal angle launch would allow the missile to reach the U.S. mainland, indicating that North Korea’s missile technology has advanced to a new level.

Activity around the nuclear facilities near Yongbyon, where North Korea’s nuclear test site is located, has also increased. On the 1st (local time), 38 North analyzed satellite images taken on the 3rd and 17th of last month and reported that the 5-megawatt (MW) reactor continues to operate, and the experimental light water reactor (ELWR) appears mostly completed and is transitioning to an operational phase. Additionally, a photo released on the 28th of last month by the Workers' Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun showing Chairman Kim Jong-un’s on-site guidance of the nuclear weaponsization project revealed Kang Kyung-ho, deputy director of the Nuclear Weapons Research Institute, among the attendees. Kang was the person who briefed at the demolition site of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site five years ago, and it is believed that during this inspection he reported plans for nuclear tests related to tactical nuclear weapons.

North Korea’s major political anniversaries this month, which could serve as justification for provocations such as ICBM launches and a seventh nuclear test, are concentrated this month. These include the 111th anniversary of President Kim Il-sung’s birthday, known as the “Day of the Sun” on April 15, the 11th anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong-un’s appointment as the Workers' Party First Secretary (April 11), the 11th anniversary of his appointment as Chairman of the National Defense Commission (April 13), and the 91st anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (April 25). Although these are not milestone anniversaries (which occur every 5 or 10 years), given North Korea’s recent confrontational responses to the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises that have heightened tensions, there is a strong possibility that North Korea will use these commemorative dates as an opportunity for provocations.

The South Korea-U.S. Navy and Marine Corps are conducting the joint amphibious exercise “Ssangryong Exercise,” which began at the end of last month and will continue until the 3rd. Additionally, the arrival of the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, part of the 11th Carrier Strike Group, has prompted the start of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan joint exercises from this day. At the end of this month, President Yoon Suk-yeol’s state visit to the U.S. and the South Korea-U.S. summit are also scheduled, making it highly likely that North Korea will demonstrate its presence through military demonstrations. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, “Considering that during previous joint exercises North Korea conducted all kinds of military demonstrations using short-range ballistic missiles, ICBMs, and nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles, it is expected that they will not remain passive during the South Korea-U.S.-Japan exercises either,” adding, “They will carry out provocations to send a stronger message than before.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.