Chinese Research Team: "If US Missile Defense Fails to Intercept North Korean Nuclear Missile, Mainland Hit in 33 Minutes"

"Old ICBMs Could Penetrate Kill Chain"
"Hard to Intercept If North Korea Fires Multiple Warhead Missiles"

Chinese researchers have released simulation results indicating that if North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are not intercepted in time by the U.S. missile defense system, there is a possibility that the U.S. mainland could be struck within about 30 minutes. They emphasized that even North Korea's relatively outdated ballistic missiles could potentially penetrate the U.S. missile defense system, interpreting this as an analysis aimed at showcasing the power of the latest strategic weapons developed by China, such as hypersonic missiles.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 15th, researchers from the Beijing Electronics Process Integration Research Institute published a paper in the Chinese academic journal "Modern Defense Technology" on the 15th of last month, stating, "Simulation results showed that North Korea's Hwasong-15 ICBM could strike the U.S. mainland in about 33 minutes," and pointed out that "the U.S. missile defense system is not perfect even against small and weak adversaries like North Korea."

According to the researchers, the simulation assumed that North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 ICBM from Sunchon, South Pyongan Province. The simulation results indicated that the Hwasong-15 missile, with a maximum range of 13,000 km, could strike Columbia, Missouri, in the central United States after 1,997 seconds, approximately 33 minutes, they explained.

The researchers stated that about 20 seconds after the missile launch, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency would receive an alert, and within 11 minutes, the first interceptor missile would be launched from Fort Greely base in Alaska. If this interception failed, a second interceptor missile would be launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. If both interceptions failed, the missile could strike the U.S. mainland. However, the researchers added that the simulation did not confirm whether North Korea's warhead directly hit Columbia, a small city with a population of 120,000.

The researchers noted, "The U.S. missile defense system has powerful capabilities but has weaknesses in the 'kill chain' system that identifies and defends against enemy attacks," and pointed out, "if North Korea launches multiple missiles equipped with more than 40 warheads, the U.S. missile defense system could be overwhelmed."

The researchers also conducted simulations of North Korean missile launches targeting Guam, the largest U.S. military base in the Western Pacific. The results showed that while the U.S. could launch four interceptor missiles, some missiles might fail to be intercepted if North Korean missiles were launched along an extremely high-altitude, unusual trajectory.

This analysis is interpreted as highlighting vulnerabilities in the U.S. missile defense system amid escalating U.S.-China tensions over the Taiwan Strait, while showcasing China's missile capabilities. SCMP evaluated this as unusual, stating, "Similar past studies conducted by Chinese scientists generally did not specify particular countries or locations, especially when the research results were made public."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.