Signal of Political Realignment... The Hidden Meaning Behind 139 Votes in Favor of Lee Jae-myung's Arrest Approval

Rejection of Arrest Consent Bill Deepens Intra-Party Conflict
"Cannot Guarantee Next Arrest Consent Bill Will Be Rejected"
Possibility of Political Realignment Grows

The arrest motion for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, was 'narrowly rejected' despite party expectations of an 'overwhelming defeat.' Although the number of votes in favor (139) exceeded the votes against (138), it failed to meet the approval requirement of a majority of members present, resulting in a 'barely' rejection. Moreover, with 9 abstentions and 11 invalid votes, the outcome of any future arrest motions cannot be predicted, and the situation has escalated to the point where the possibility of political realignment must also be considered.

1) The next arrest motion cannot be guaranteed.

What became clear from this voting result is that, contrary to political expectations, if another arrest motion is submitted, no one can guarantee its rejection. Currently, the number of Democratic Party members is 169. Considering also independent lawmakers who were formerly with the Democratic Party?Min Hyung-bae, Park Wan-joo, Yang Jung-sook, Yoon Mi-hyang?and Yong Hye-in of the Basic Income Party, rejecting the arrest motion was not a difficult task.

However, the actual number of votes in favor far exceeded 121, which includes 114 members of the People Power Party (excluding Jeong Chan-min, who is currently detained), 6 members of the Justice Party, and Cho Jung-hoon of the Si-dae Jeongsin Party. Since the vote was anonymous, it cannot be confirmed, but even if all those who expressed support voted in favor, at least 18 among those who did not express support cast affirmative votes. Furthermore, there were 20 votes that were either invalid or abstentions, effectively withholding their vote. If these votes shift toward approval in the next vote, the arrest motion could pass. Within the Democratic Party, there was a strong sentiment of 'we will block it this time,' so it is difficult to guarantee vote consolidation next time. Both political and legal circles openly discuss the possibility of submitting additional arrest motions using tactics such as salami slicing or splitting the motion.

Choi Kang-wook, a pro-Lee Jae-myung Democratic Party lawmaker, stated on MBC Radio's Kim Jong-bae's Focus, "Judging by yesterday's result alone, it is correct to say that it is difficult to guarantee rejection."

2) A signal for political realignment

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is seen conversing with fellow lawmakers after delivering a personal statement regarding the submission of a motion for his arrest at the plenary session held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 27th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The Democratic Party initially anticipated some degree of dissenting votes. However, the analysis that at least 31 members did not participate in the rejection has caused shock. This number of seats is practically enough to form a negotiation group. In 2016, the People’s Party, formed mainly by those who left the Democratic Party, gathered 20 seats to form a negotiation group. Forming such a group allows for different influence in parliamentary operations and party subsidies compared to minor parties.

Within the Democratic Party, the possibility of a split is generally viewed as low, but it has been confirmed that there is at least a minimum number of lawmakers capable of exerting power. Reports have emerged that Jeong Seong-ho, a Democratic Party lawmaker who has considered himself a political ally of Lee, said, "I don't know if I can go together; I hope he leaves," indicating a rising wall of distrust within the party.

Ha Tae-kyung, a People Power Party lawmaker, even predicted that whether the Democratic Party splits depends on the timing of Lee’s arrest or resignation as party leader. Ha said, "The Democratic Party will not split. Lee Jae-myung will be in prison before university students’ summer vacation," adding, "But if he is arrested around winter, just before the general election, the aftereffects could cause a split because party members would not accept it." Ha also interpreted, "The 20 abstentions and invalid votes will turn into affirmative votes next time," and said, "(Democratic Party lawmakers) gave him a chance. If he steps down as leader, they will continue to block it, but if he does not, they are threatening that he will go to prison."

3) An era of distrust, potential for expanded division

What deserves attention is that, besides the votes in favor, the scale of abstentions and votes against is large. During the arrest motion for Roh Woong-rae, there were 9 abstentions. Compared to that, the number of invalid and abstention votes has significantly increased this time.

These votes, often referred to as 'rebellious votes,' were not previously revealed in Democratic Party tallies. Former Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Jae-sung said on SBS Kim Tae-hyun’s News Show, "It is said that the non-Lee faction lawmakers who advocated rejection used a kind of trick." Considering that there was communication among lawmakers during the voting process, it is believed they deliberately concealed their true intentions and voted with resolve. Inside the Democratic Party, there is also analysis that this hidden sentiment is even larger. Lee Sang-min, a Democratic Party lawmaker, appeared on CBS Radio Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show and said, "The numbers shown are just the tip of the iceberg," adding, "The iceberg beneath the surface is large."

An important point to watch is how the meaning of this vote result will be interpreted going forward. It could lead to party unity, but conversely, if it leads to purging, internal backlash could increase. Democratic Party lawmaker Park Beom-gye said on KBS Radio Choi Kyung-young’s Strong Current, "There should be transparent discussions and objections regarding those 30 or more votes," expressing regret, "It is unclear whether this is a difference in policy lines or methodology, or if it is something that can be persuaded." Former lawmaker Choi also said, "Even if there is antipathy toward the leader and genuine concern about how to conduct the general election, the result is a form of deceit," warning, "This breeds distrust, and if distrust takes root within the party, nothing will be believed. Then, low-level and violent clashes await."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.