[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Why Did North Korea's Drone Intrude?

Need for Attack Coordinates, Response Posture Check, Military Agreement Termination

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Questions are being raised about North Korea's intention in sending several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) for the first time in about five years and six months since June 2017. Military experts view this as an effort to confirm coordinates for military provocations, check the response posture of South Korean forces, and as a move to break the September 19 military agreement.

On the 27th, a military official said, "While North Korea had previously sent one UAV to a specific area, this time they launched several simultaneously to conduct reconnaissance over a designated zone, and we are analyzing their intentions from multiple angles."

It is known that North Korea flew UAVs over the West Sea Five Islands even before the Yeonpyeong Island shelling provocation in November 2010. Later, in August 2015, when tensions between the South and North were high due to the 'box mine' provocation within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), UAVs were flown near Panmunjom. This was just before high-level inter-Korean talks. Military experts speculate that since North Korea lacks high-performance reconnaissance aircraft or reconnaissance satellites, they likely used UAVs to set attack coordinates. The three UAVs that crashed in 2014 had coordinates with GPS codes input. Based on this, South Korean forces could track the UAVs' routes. The deployment of multiple UAVs this time suggests that precise coordinates were needed.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, said, "North Korea is recently accelerating the development of reconnaissance satellites to improve reconnaissance capabilities," adding, "Until then, they will continue such UAV reconnaissance."

If the reconnaissance was for a limited provocation, it is also analyzed that North Korea needed to check South Korea's response posture. In response to North Korean UAVs in 2014, South Korea introduced ten Israeli tactical low-altitude radars (RPS-42). However, these are deployed only in parts of Seoul, including the Blue House, and can detect small UAVs under 2 meters within 10 km. Detection of UAVs conducting reconnaissance in the northwestern part of Gyeonggi Province was impossible.

Because of this, there were many problems with South Korea's response posture. The military attempted to shoot down the UAVs by deploying fighter jets, attack helicopters, and light attack aircraft, firing about 100 rounds from 20mm helicopter cannons, but failed. This was just ten days after Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Seung-gyeom visited the air defense position of the 3rd Infantry Division in northern Gyeonggi on the 16th to emphasize UAV air defense posture. The Joint Chiefs of Staff's Combat Readiness Inspection Office plans to review the overall operational measures and will conduct an on-site visit on the 27th for this purpose.

In response to North Korea's UAVs, South Korean forces deployed manned and unmanned reconnaissance assets near the Military Demarcation Line and in areas north of it. Manned RF-16 Semae tactical reconnaissance aircraft and RQ-101 Songgolmae UAVs were dispatched to conduct reconnaissance activities, including photographing key North Korean military facilities. This is the first official acknowledgment by the military of sending reconnaissance aircraft into North Korean territory. However, flying reconnaissance aircraft beyond the MDL into the opponent's side violates not only the Armistice Agreement but also the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement of 2018. Ultimately, it is calculated that South Korea acted as North Korea intended in breaking the September 19 military agreement. This analysis concludes that the September 19 agreement has effectively been nullified.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.