BPA Forecasts 0.9% Increase in Busan Port Container Throughput Next Year

Busan Port.

[Asia Economy Yeongnam Reporting Headquarters Reporter Hwang Duyul] It has been announced that the cargo volume at Busan Port in 2023 is expected to reach approximately 22.31 million TEU, an increase of about 0.9% compared to the previous year.

On the 23rd, Busan Port Authority (BPA) announced that the 2023 cargo volume at Busan Port is projected to be about 22.31 million TEU, up approximately 0.9% from the previous year; export-import cargo volume is expected to increase by 0.7% to 10.38 million TEU; and transshipment cargo volume is forecasted to rise by 1.1% to 11.93 million TEU.

The 2023 export-import cargo volume forecast was estimated using an in-house time series prediction method (ARIMA) reflecting the monthly cargo volumes at Busan Port over the past 10 years.

ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) is a time series data-based predictive analysis technique that refers to an autoregressive integrated moving average model.

Transshipment cargo, which accounts for about 54% of the total container cargo at Busan Port in 2023, is estimated at approximately 11.93 million TEU, a 1.1% increase from the previous year, based on forecasts collected from shipping companies using Busan Port.

Since transshipment cargo volume can vary significantly depending on the shipping companies' fleet operation plans, the time series prediction method cannot be applied. Therefore, forecasts from 20 shipping companies handling over 98% of the total transshipment cargo at Busan Port were utilized.

The 2022 cargo volume at Busan Port is expected to record negative growth due to downward pressure from factors such as the Russia crisis and continued demand slowdown caused by intensified global inflation.

In particular, Busan Port's container cargo volume is significantly influenced by China and the United States, which accounted for 28% and 15% respectively in 2021. The high-intensity quarantine policies in China and the decrease in consumer goods demand in the North American region have had a major impact.

Additionally, the reduction in Russian cargo due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis is another major cause of the cargo volume decline.

Due to the global demand slowdown, 10 out of 13 of the world's top 20 ports, excluding seven Chinese ports, are showing a downward trend.

BPA is making multifaceted efforts to recover the decreased cargo volume in 2022.

Last September, BPA directly visited the headquarters of global shipping companies such as MSC and Hapag Lloyd and has been continuously marketing Busan Port through meetings with Korean representatives of shipping companies.

Also, in November, a large-scale Busan Port briefing session was held with about 300 Japanese shipping companies attending. Japanese shipping companies account for about 14% of Busan Port's transshipment cargo volume.

Despite recent negative external factors, Busan Port's connectivity index, announced by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), rose by 2.8 points (2.4%) compared to the previous year.

Kang Jun-seok, BPA President, said, “In 2023, we will steadily promote the development of new container terminals at the New Port and seek policies to improve port operation efficiency. We will continue to strive to enhance Busan Port’s competitiveness to attract cargo volume.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.