North Korea May Accelerate Weapon Development and Increase Provocations Next Year

After unveiling new weapons at the military parade, a series of test launches followed, raising the possibility of a nuclear test

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There is a growing expectation that North Korea may escalate military provocations in line with its weapons development speed starting early next year, potentially leading to nuclear tests. This is based on the possibility that North Korea could increase the intensity of provocations around political events in response to the underestimation of its weapons.

On the 20th, Kim Yo-jong, Vice Director of the North Korean Workers' Party, hinted at a normal-angle launch regarding intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a statement released through the Korean Central News Agency, saying, "You will soon see." While engine performance tests have so far been conducted through high-angle launches, going forward, they plan to launch at normal angles to demonstrate the capability to enter the atmosphere and strike targets.

Among the 'five major tasks' emphasized by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, the development of ▲underwater and land-based solid-fuel engine ICBMs and ▲nuclear submarines with underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons (SLBMs) has not yet been achieved. On the 18th, the Korean Central News Agency reported that "Chairman Kim encouraged and expected the emergence of another new strategic weapon within the shortest period." The new strategic weapons are presumed to be SLBMs using underwater solid-fuel engines and ICBMs using land-based solid-fuel engines. After developing engines utilizing solid fuel, North Korea could equip multiple missiles with them and claim the development of 'new strategic weapons.'

North Korea has only test-launched the Pukguksong-3 among SLBMs. The Pukguksong-4S (range 3,000?4,000 km) and Pukguksong-5S (range 4,000?5,000 km) are still under development. Therefore, at the 75th anniversary military parade commemorating the founding of the Korean People's Army on February 8 next year, North Korea may unveil SLBMs equipped with underwater solid-fuel engines. It is highly likely that launches will follow soon after the weather improves. February 8 next year marks the 75th anniversary of the Korean People's Army founding (Gun-gun-jeol), and April, when North Korea is preparing military satellites, includes many political events related to Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "North Korea is likely to provoke with conventional weapons in the East and West Seas around the military parade," adding, "Afterwards, it is highly probable that they will demonstrate strike capabilities with new weapon systems such as mid-to-long-range ballistic missiles equipped with solid-fuel engines and SLBMs, and conduct nuclear tests."

However, it is assessed that it will take a long time for North Korea to develop nuclear-powered submarines capable of carrying multiple SLBMs. The construction of the 3,000-ton submarine unveiled by North Korea in 2019 is still incomplete, indicating that developing a nuclear submarine will not be easy. Despite six nuclear tests, North Korea has not developed a small reactor for submarines, raising the possibility of additional nuclear tests. This is a necessary step even to miniaturize multiple warheads.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School for North Korean Studies said, "Additional nuclear tests will be conducted when missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads are needed or when politically it is necessary to put the United States in a difficult position," adding, "Internally, the 75th anniversary of Victory Day on July 27 or the 75th anniversary of the regime establishment on September 9 next year are possible occasions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.