"No Dismissal or Replacement of Chief of Staff"... Continued Appointment Despite Incompetence Controversy

Calls for Replacement Grow After Consecutive Defeats
Putin's Trust Remains High... Replacement Seems Difficult

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Amid rumors of the dismissal of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov within and outside Russian politics, the Russian government has officially denied any dismissal. Although there are growing calls for his removal due to consecutive defeats on the Ukrainian front, it is expected to be difficult for President Vladimir Putin, who has few trusted aides within the military, to make a replacement.

As the winter cold intensifies, the Ukrainian front, which has fallen into a stalemate, has seen both sides engage in bombing raids using unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) and ballistic missiles, worsening civilian casualties. The rapid depletion of Russian missile and ammunition stocks is also expected to increase pressure for ceasefire negotiations.

Russian Kremlin: "President Putin Has Never Signed Any Dismissal Order for the Chief of the General Staff"

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According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 13th (local time), Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, emphasized during a press briefing that "the story about Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov being dismissed is fake news" and "President Putin has never signed any document to replace the Chief of the General Staff."

Previously, rumors circulated within and outside Russian politics that the Chief of the General Staff had already been dismissed. The dismissal rumors of Gerasimov were reported not only on social media platforms such as Telegram but also by major media outlets.

The dismissal rumors of Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov began in March when the Russian military started struggling in Ukraine. At that time, the rumors spread as he disappeared from official events for over two weeks, but they subsided soon after he returned to work. However, as the Russian military suffered consecutive defeats on the Ukrainian front, criticism of his operational incompetence intensified.

Last month, Russian marines openly criticized his incompetence and demanded his replacement by distributing an open letter through social media.

Putin’s Low Trust in the Military... Replacement Seems Difficult

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Even though frontline commanders have growing dissatisfaction with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov’s leadership, the prevailing analysis is that it will be difficult to replace him easily. From President Putin’s perspective, who has few trustworthy generals in the military, Gerasimov is an essential figure to maintain control over the military and is also a hardliner who strongly supported Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to the British BBC, Gerasimov advocated the so-called 'Hybrid War' doctrine in 2013, which combines unconventional tactics such as cyber warfare, false flag operations, and terrorism. Following this doctrine, the Russian military successfully invaded and forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, earning strong trust from President Putin.

Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, along with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is known as one of the few generals trusted by President Putin within the Russian military. Given that Putin is a former KGB officer, the Soviet-era military intelligence agency, the dominant analysis is that he has no choice but to continue employing Gerasimov to maintain control over the military. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed, "Since Defense Minister Shoigu, who was also rumored to be dismissed earlier, has not been replaced, it will be difficult for President Putin to take the risk of replacing the Chief of the General Staff at this time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.