[Opinion] Expectations and Hopes for the US Midterm Election Results

Published 14 Nov.2022 14:34(KST)

[Asia Economy] In the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party secured 50 seats in the Senate. Considering the approximately 30 House seats still being counted, the Republican Party is predicted to have a narrow lead of only 3 or 4 seats. The predictions were completely off. Just before the election, the Republicans confidently claimed they would flip Washington to a minority government by gaining 35 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and experts expected the same. The Republicans are now at a loss after their crushing defeat, while the Democrats, who should be celebrating victory, appear bewildered about how to assess the outcome.

One evening in mid-September, the 'Democratic Party Election Committee' was urgently convened. It was a strategy meeting addressing the rapidly spreading public opinion that the Republican campaign attacking President Joe Biden’s governance was resonating with voters. Two options were on the table: whether to adopt a defensive strategy focused on protecting seats or to launch an aggressive public opinion campaign shifting economic issues into value issues. The former meant accepting defeat and trying to minimize losses, while the latter aimed to change the election dynamics and take the offensive. In August, with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and stabilization of gas prices, the president’s approval rating seemed to rebound, but within less than a month, gas prices rose again and financial markets were unsettled by fears of escalation in the Ukraine war. The Republicans seized this atmosphere to criticize the Biden administration’s incompetence. Anxiety about 'economy and crime' was spreading rapidly. Patrick Maloney, a five-term congressman from New York and the election committee chair, suddenly stood up and scribbled one word on the board: ‘Believe!’. It was a call to trust citizens in the effort to save American democracy.

The Democratic campaign consistently focused on 'democracy and values.' From about ten days before the election, various polls focusing on economic issues warned of a strong 'Red Wave.' The support rate for the Republican candidate for New York governor, personally endorsed and strongly supported by former President Donald Trump, surged rapidly. New York is the Democratic Party’s strongest stronghold. To prevent defections from the core base, former presidents, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Secretary Hillary Clinton all stepped in. Still, Democratic leaders did not give up exposing and criticizing Trump’s political misdeeds. President Biden even delivered a special national address at the train station near the Capitol where the pro-Trump mob incident occurred.

On November 8, election day, the Republicans planned a large victory party in the heart of Washington, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi huddled in the Democratic headquarters awaiting results. It seemed as if the Democrats were doomed to annihilation. In 1994, President Bill Clinton lost 54 seats in his first midterm; in 2010, President Barack Obama lost 63 seats; and in 2018, President Trump lost 40 seats. Indeed, the saying that a first-term president’s midterm election is his political grave seemed true.

The outcome of this midterm election was influenced by the consciousness of civil society beyond Democratic control. The Supreme Court’s ruling that revoked abortion rights after half a century energized the Democratic base. Bipartisan citizens’ voices opposing the unchecked anti-intellectual far-right Trump politics, still central to the Republican Party, were expressed through voting. The 2022 midterm election is a major victory for the Democratic Party’s call to protect democracy in a diverse, multiethnic society. The election results have sown hope. We look forward to the traditional Republican Party expelling the extreme far-right forces from its core and restoring itself as a predictable, normal conservative party.