[Asia Report] Malaysia's General Election: Reform or Stability?

On the 5th, when the election campaign for the Malaysian general election began, supporters holding flags representing each party faced each other across a fence. Malaysia will hold its 15th general election on the 19th to elect the owners of 222 seats. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

"I hereby dissolve the parliament."

On October 10th, Ismail Sabri Yaakob (62), the Prime Minister of Malaysia, signaled the political reopening of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after COVID-19. With the endemic phase (periodic outbreaks of infectious diseases), the plan is to fully resume political activities, including election campaigns. The results of the 15th general election on the 17th, which will select the owners of the 222 seats, are expected to significantly influence the future of Asian politics. Malaysian members of parliament have a maximum term of five years, but the Prime Minister holds the power to dissolve parliament only after three years. Since the Prime Minister has the authority to choose the timing most favorable to the ruling party to hold elections, it is more accurate to say that the parliamentary term is flexible (3 to 5 years). So, the question arises: why is Malaysia holding the general election at this particular time?

◇ Malay dictatorship continuing for 61 years = Malaysia is the most representative ‘multi-ethnic, multi-religious democratic republic’ in Asia. The Malay ethnic group (69%), Chinese (23%), and Indian (7%) have fiercely competed and sometimes cooperated repeatedly. In a multi-ethnic society, intermarriage between different races rarely occurs, and the linguistic environments differ greatly. Because the population is divided into these three ethnic groups, understanding political news is quite complicated. There are three political parties representing progressives, centrists, and conservatives for each ethnicity, totaling nine, plus three coalition names, making at least 12 political forces mixed together. Adding minority parties makes it easy for foreigners to get lost in the complex party names.

Modern Malaysian history has been marked more by conflict and tension than harmony. From the perspective of the Malay people, who have lived on this land for over 1,000 years, the Chinese immigrants who began arriving in earnest after the 19th century were unfamiliar and uncomfortable foreigners. Conversely, to the Chinese, the Malays were an incompetent and inefficient indigenous group monopolizing state power. After independence from Britain in 1957, as ethnic conflicts intensified, Singapore?with a high proportion of Chinese?was separated in 1965, and a full-fledged Malay dictatorship began. As a result, from 1957 to 2018, the government never changed hands for 61 years. The long-ruling party is UMNO (United Malays National Organisation), and the political coalition centered on it is called Barisan Nasional (BN).

◇ Persistent rejection of Anwar = Finally, in 2018, the government changed. The Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by longtime opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim (75) succeeded in a historic first regime change. However, this was not achieved by Anwar and PH alone. They brought in Mahathir Mohamad (97), famous as a long-serving prime minister in the 1980s and 1990s, as the party’s figurehead, and attracted moderate factions from the corruption-ridden UMNO party, overturning the balance with 113 seats to 79.

The reason Malaysian politics underwent a major upheaval after the regime change lies in the deep-rooted opposition of vested interests to Anwar. Anwar is a prominent democrat representing Malaysia’s reform forces. His reforms include widely appointing capable Chinese and Indian talents. Naturally, from the perspective of the Malay group that has ruled for over 60 years, the prospect of ‘Prime Minister Anwar’ is most uncomfortable.

Therefore, when the elderly Mahathir showed signs in 2020 of transferring the prime ministership to Anwar in response to public sentiment, moderate Malay politicians rebelled en masse, even involving the king. The moderate political faction that split from UMNO is BERSATU, and the coalition they lead, Perikatan Nasional (PN), is expected to become the third major party in this election. They want reform but refuse to ally with Anwar, who is close to the Chinese faction. Muhyiddin Yassin (75), who served as prime minister in 2020, leads this group.

Thus, the three major forces are the main players in this general election. Although the outcome is extremely difficult to predict, some data shows trends. According to a Merdeka Center poll at the end of October, first place is PH led by Anwar (26%), second is the traditional BN (24%), and third is the centrist PN (13%). Over one-third of voters still answered "undecided," but the general trend is visible. For reference, the newly formed party led by Mahathir, GTA, received only 2-3% support, but if it wins 2-3 seats, it could dramatically hold the casting vote.

Malaysian voters agree that the significance of this election lies in whether Anwar’s forces can secure a majority and take power. In the 2018 election, they won through an alliance with Mahathir and defectors from UMNO, but this time they must win alone to achieve the first-ever horizontal regime change. Young people in their 20s to 40s, including in the capital Kuala Lumpur, show clear support for Anwar regardless of ethnicity or income.

However, experts analyze that under the current configuration, repeating a regime change is difficult. As polls show, BN with long ruling experience and PN, which was once part of BN, are likely to join forces again to form a majority.

◇ Corrupt former prime minister sentenced to "12 years in prison" = The conservative forces including UMNO are confident of victory because of the decisive punishment of former Prime Minister Najib Razak (in power 2009?2018). The ruling party’s split and the opposition’s victory in the 2018 election were caused by the corruption and fraud centered on the former prime minister’s vested interests. When astronomical money laundering and embezzlement involving the sovereign wealth fund were revealed, longtime supporters turned their backs. As a result, with the regime change, the judiciary actively prosecuted Najib, and in the summer of 2022, the first trial confirmed a 12-year sentence. This recalls the candlelight protests and impeachment trial in South Korea in 2017. Prosecuting a former prime minister is a clear symbol of democratic progress rarely seen in ASEAN political history.

Amid the recent political upheaval, UMNO briefly regained power in 2021 by nominating Ismail Sabri Yaakob as prime minister. Despite the COVID-19 crisis, he demonstrated stable governance, and recently, with bipartisan agreement, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, increasing the number of voters by over one million. As the conservative party that monopolized power for a long time showed some willingness to reform, public perception improved rapidly.

Nevertheless, the core conflict centers on whether Chinese talents can be boldly promoted for national development?that is, whether the Bumiputera policy (Malay preferential policy), a key Malaysian policy, will be relaxed or maintained. The opposition coalition led by Anwar wants faster reform and ethnic harmony, while the conservative ruling party calls for a slower approach. What will the Malaysian people’s choice be? November 19th is fast approaching.

Jung Ho-jae, Writer & Researcher at Korea University ASEAN Center

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.