[US Midterm Elections] Will the 'Red Wave' Become a Tsunami... Is It Upper Class vs. Upper Class or Upper Class vs. Lower Class?

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] On the morning of the 8th (local time), when the power of the US Congress was being reorganized, the footsteps of New Yorkers voting continued nonstop at Frank McCourt High School located in the Upper West Side of Manhattan, New York.

Christina Gray, whom we met in front of the polling station that day, took a selfie first to make sure the ‘I voted’ sticker attached to her top showed well. Gray, who said she had been a longtime supporter of the Democratic Party, said, "I am angry about the high inflation and too much crime," adding, "I have always voted for the Democratic Party, but this time was different." Tyler Jones, whom we met at the same place, said, "The economy is not good," but pointed to the blue (the Democratic Party’s symbolic color) padded vest he was wearing, saying, "Isn’t that a global problem? I thought the direction and values the US should take were more important."

On the 8th, the day of the U.S. midterm elections (local time), a voter at a polling station in Hillsborough, Virginia, is casting a ballot while wearing a red hat, the symbol of the Republican Party, with former President Donald Trump's name on it.

In the November 8 midterm elections, which serve as a midterm evaluation of President Joe Biden’s administration, the early vote count confirmed the expected Republican advantage, increasing political uncertainty going forward. The momentum of President Biden’s remaining term is expected to be hindered immediately, and the legalization of abortion rights, which was considered a top legislative priority after the election, is almost certain to fail. Since this election had the character of a ‘mini presidential election’ between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, its impact on the 2024 presidential race is inevitable.

◇Republicans Lead in the House, What About the Senate?

As of the night of the 8th (local time), early vote counts confirm the Republican advantage. If the current trend continues, the Republicans are likely to regain the majority in the House for the first time in four years. This is the scenario that was anticipated early on.

The key question now is whether the Republicans, buoyed by economic judgment, will control both chambers of Congress or whether a last-minute rally by the Democrats will result in a split Congress with a Democratic Senate and Republican House. The Associated Press reported, "Signs of Republican advantage are appearing in many ways," but added, "Whether the Red Wave will be a wave or a tsunami remains to be seen."

Exit polls released by Emerson Research to CNN and others on the day showed that more than 7 out of 10 voters expressed dissatisfaction and anger with the current situation in the US, confirming the so-called ‘judgment theory.’ Nearly half, 46%, said President Biden’s policies are harming the country. The factor that influenced voters the most was inflation (32%), followed by abortion (27%), crime (12%), gun policy (12%), and immigration (10%).

However, there remains a possibility that progressive voters consolidated their votes at the last minute in response to this Red Wave. The New York Times (NYT) reported, "The hottest question on election night is ‘which party will control the Senate,’ but the answer may not come immediately," adding, "It may take several days to get accurate vote counts."

As of 8:30 PM Eastern Time on the 8th (10:30 AM KST on the 9th), the House election vote count status. Red indicates confirmed Republican winners, and blue indicates confirmed Democratic winners. [Source: Screenshot from CNN broadcast]

◇Political Change Inevitable... What About the Impact on South Korea?

Political change is inevitable with the reorganization of congressional power. The legalization of abortion rights, which has been a point of contention between progressives and conservatives, is expected to be blocked due to Republican opposition. Instead, Republican priority bills on immigration and crime are expected to emerge. Support for Ukraine is also likely to be partially reduced. Local experts believe that while some bills may be repealed under Republican leadership, complete repeal will be difficult due to presidential veto powers and other factors.

Political moves to deal a blow to President Biden ahead of the 2024 presidential election may also intensify. Investigations targeting Biden’s second son, Hunter, have already been anticipated. Earlier this month, CNN reported that Representative James Comer (Kentucky) plans to send a letter to the Treasury Department on the 9th, the day after the election, requesting suspicious bank transaction records related to Hunter Biden. With President Biden approaching 80 years old, there is a possibility that his bid for re-election could become difficult. This is why President Biden, who has already launched his campaign, repeatedly emphasized this election as a ‘turning point.’

On the night of the 8th (local time), the U.S. midterm election day, people gathered at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, watched the TV election coverage. In the Florida gubernatorial election that day, Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida and a 'Republican presidential contender,' secured his victory early. [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

On the other hand, former President Trump is expected to officially announce his presidential bid on the 15th at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, as planned, and to use this Red Wave as an opportunity. After voting with his wife Melania Trump, he told reporters, "The country has gotten much worse," criticizing that "we have lost our way and confidence."

South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade, is not free from the impact of the US midterm elections. Regardless of which party gains the majority, the ‘America First’ policy is expected to continue, dealing a direct blow to South Korea.

Regarding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is of great interest in South Korea, expectations for amendments after the midterm elections have been raised, but this is also unlikely. Even Republicans, who have criticized the infrastructure reduction law, agree on fostering the domestic electric vehicle industry and strengthening supply chains, so even if amendments are made, they are expected to focus mainly on taxes and fiscal spending, which Republicans have opposed, rather than reflecting South Korea’s position. For South Korea, it is urgent to strengthen negotiation capabilities with the US and work with allies such as Japan and Europe to reflect their positions as allies.

Additionally, regarding the North Korea issue, while maintaining the existing stance of never recognizing North Korea’s nuclear weapons, the Republican Party’s hardline stance is expected to be highlighted.

Furthermore, the impact on the New York Stock Exchange is expected to be limited. Midterm elections have traditionally been positive for the stock market. However, this year, the Federal Reserve’s high-intensity tightening and concerns about a recession are more prominent than in previous years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.