Biden's Remaining 2 Years Depend on Today's Outcome... US Midterm Elections Kick Off

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] The November 8 midterm elections, which will determine the remaining two years of policy momentum for the Joe Biden administration, are being held simultaneously across the United States on the 8th (local time). Depending on how congressional power is reshaped through this election, the impact will inevitably extend not only through the remaining two years but also to the 2024 presidential election, effectively framing it as a "mini presidential election" between President Biden and his political rival, former President Donald Trump.

◇The Day of Decision Has Arrived...Republicans Likely to Control the House, Senate Too Close to Call

In this midterm election, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 state governors, and members of 46 state legislatures will be newly elected. It is the day to determine whether the Republican Party will reclaim both the Senate and the House, currently controlled by the Democrats, or take only one chamber, or lose both.

According to polls released on the 7th, the day before the election, the Republicans are likely to take control of the House, and the Senate, which is also a "too close to call" race, may also see the Republicans become the majority party. Political analysis site RealClearPolitics (RCP) predicted that out of the 435 House seats, Republicans would hold 227 seats and Democrats 174 seats. Even excluding the 34 remaining battleground districts, this suggests Republicans have already surpassed the 218-seat majority threshold in the House.

FiveThirtyEight (538) forecasted an 83% chance that Republicans will retake the House. For the Senate, they gave Republicans a 55% chance of becoming the majority party. The key battleground states that will decide control of the Senate include Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Wisconsin, Washington, and Colorado are also mentioned as states to watch closely.

Midterm elections, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, often serve as a referendum on the ruling party. Depending on how congressional power is reshuffled, various policies and legislation of President Biden, from government spending to support for Ukraine, will inevitably face obstacles. Especially if Republicans control both the Senate and the House, a rapid lame-duck period for President Biden is a concern.

Election results are expected to start coming in as early as 8 p.m. Eastern Time (6 a.m. Korean Time on the 9th). However, a clear picture is likely to emerge only late at night. Four years ago, midterm election results began to be reported as "likely" around 11 p.m. (1 p.m. local time).

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

◇All-Out Campaigning Until the Last Day...Biden Removes Jacket, Urges "Protect Democracy"

On the evening of the 7th, during his final campaign rally in Columbia, Maryland, President Biden said, "We feel in our bones that democracy is at risk, and we know this is the moment to protect democracy," urging people to "preserve, defend, and choose democracy."

He also listed his major legislative achievements, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and strongly criticized Republican candidates who have blocked these efforts as "MAGA Republicans" (MAGA being former President Trump's campaign slogan).

He chose a Democratic stronghold rather than a battleground state for his final rally, focusing on rallying supporters. His last endorsement was for Wes Moore, who is running to become Maryland’s first Black governor, which analysts interpret as targeting the predominantly Black Democratic voter base.

CNN reported that recent rallies by President Biden in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states share a commonality: Republican candidates who deny the previous presidential election results or may refuse to accept this election’s outcome are concentrated there. This aligns with Biden’s strategy of framing this election as a battle between "democracy versus anti-democracy."

On the other hand, former President Trump chose Ohio for his final night rally. Ohio was one of the significant places where "Trump power" within the Republican Party was confirmed during the presidential election two years ago.

Particularly, local reports have surged with claims that Trump told close aides he would announce his 2024 presidential bid at this event, drawing significant attention. Republican officials reportedly strongly discouraged him from declaring his candidacy before the midterms, fearing it would consolidate Democratic votes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.