Trump Considers Announcing 2024 Presidential Run on 14th... Will Midterm Election 'Red Wave' Gain Momentum?

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] Former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly seriously considering announcing his candidacy for the next presidential election on the 14th (local time). This is interpreted as a plan to leverage the likely Republican takeover of Congress in the November 8 midterm elections into support for himself.

According to multiple sources cited by CNN and others on the 4th, Trump's key aides view the third week of this month as the most ideal time for Trump to announce his 2024 presidential bid. Specifically, the 14th is being discussed as the announcement date.

This is six days after the midterm elections. With expectations that the Republican Party will regain at least the majority in the House of Representatives in this midterm election, this strategy aims to capitalize on the so-called red wave as much as possible. However, the exact date may be moved earlier or later depending on the midterm election results and the location of the announcement.

Along with this, it is known that former President Trump is considering choosing the announcement location from one of the battleground states where he narrowly lost in the 2020 presidential election or from Florida, where his support base is strong. Florida is also notable as the home state of Governor Ron DeSantis, who is considered a leading Republican presidential contender. If Trump announces his candidacy there first, it is expected to serve as a check against Governor DeSantis.

Trump, who has consistently indicated his intention to run in the 2024 presidential election, has so far considered the period between the midterm elections and the Thanksgiving holiday (fourth week of November) as the official announcement window. At a rally in Iowa the day before, he hinted about his candidacy saying, "Very, very, very probably I will do it again."

If Trump runs, the 2024 presidential election is likely to be a rematch against President Joe Biden. However, if the Democrats lose in this midterm election, there are predictions that calls for Biden not to run will intensify amid rising accountability concerns surrounding him.

According to FiveThirtyEight (538), the probability of the Republican Party securing the majority in the House is 85%. The Senate, which is expected to be closely contested, shows a 55% chance of a Republican victory. The Democratic support, which had been rising due to legislative achievements such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court in June and the Inflation Reduction Act, has recently been shrinking again. This is interpreted as a consequence of government accountability becoming more prominent as the election approaches, due to issues directly affecting people's livelihoods such as persistent inflation, growing concerns over economic slowdown, and high crime rates.

President Biden and former President Trump are scheduled to campaign in Pennsylvania, one of the biggest battleground states in the midterm elections, on the 5th, the last weekend before the election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.