SCM Joint Statement First Mentions 'End of Kim Jong-un Regime'... North Korea Expected to React

Phrase 'End of Kim Regime' Reflecting US Will Included
Regularized Exercises on Extended Deterrence Assuming North Korean Nuclear Use
Strong vs. Strong Standoff on Korean Peninsula Likely to Continue for Now

Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin are attending the chairing ceremony at the entrance of the U.S. Department of Defense building (Pentagon) on the 3rd (Korean time) ahead of the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korea and the United States.
[Photo by Ministry of National Defense]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] The phrase "the end of the Kim Jong-un regime" was explicitly stated for the first time in the joint statement issued by the South Korean and U.S. Departments of Defense at the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). This is interpreted as a strong warning message to North Korea, and a retaliatory military provocation from North Korea is expected in response.

In the joint statement announced through the SCM on the 3rd (local time), the two defense ministries stated, "Secretary Austin warned that any nuclear attack, including non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons against the United States, its allies, and partners, will not be tolerated and will lead to the end of the Kim Jong-un regime."

The SCM joint statement serves as a blueprint that settles current issues between allies and outlines the direction to move forward, and is regarded as equivalent to a 'diplomatic document.' Including the phrase "the end of the Kim Jong-un regime" in a document of this nature is read as a strong warning against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

Earlier, the U.S. also included similar wording in its "2022 Nuclear Posture Review" released on the 27th of last month (local time). The report stated, "There is no scenario in which the Kim (Jong-un) regime can use nuclear weapons and survive," and "North Korea's nuclear attack on the United States, its allies, or partners is unacceptable and will result in the regime's end."

The inclusion of such expressions consecutively in the official U.S. Department of Defense report and the SCM is also evidence that the U.S. takes North Korea's nuclear and missile threats very seriously.

North Korea has reached a level where it can equip small nuclear warheads on short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) that can reach South Korea, and has clearly expressed its intention to develop 'nuclear multiple warhead' intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) aimed at the United States. Experts believe the purpose of the 7th nuclear test is likely to verify the explosive power of small nuclear warheads.

It is also noteworthy that both South Korea and the U.S. presented a concrete direction for the "end of the regime" if North Korea shows intent to use nuclear weapons. The two ministers specified that to enhance the effectiveness of the extended deterrence strategy, they will further strengthen capabilities, information sharing, consultation procedures, joint planning, and execution.

This is interpreted as embodying the meaning of a "Korean-style extended deterrence," modeled after NATO member countries' nuclear sharing. Including such wording in the joint statement is considered a significant achievement, but the key issue will be how much South Korea's voice will be reflected during future consultation procedures and joint planning processes.

Operating extended deterrence means considerable costs are involved, and from the U.S. perspective, it must also consider responses from China and Russia to increasing the operational capability of these measures on the Korean Peninsula.

A Ministry of Defense official explained, "We will consult with the U.S. side to create manuals for consultation procedures and joint planning of extended deterrence operational means."

Additionally, the two ministers plan to deploy U.S. strategic assets in a timely and coordinated manner as needed and seek new measures to strengthen deterrence. Through revising the Korea-U.S. Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS), they will establish a basic framework to effectively deter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and regularize extended deterrence operational means exercises (TTX).

TTX is expected to be conducted with participation from U.S. strategic delivery systems such as strategic bombers, nuclear-powered submarines, and missile defense forces. Through this exercise, manuals for consultation procedures and joint planning of extended deterrence operational means are expected to be developed.

Furthermore, the joint statement specified, "Secretary Austin stated that the increased frequency and intensity of U.S. strategic asset deployments, in accordance with the commitment of the two presidents to expand the rotational deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity, are visible evidence of the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea."

This suggests that the frequency of U.S. strategic assets deploying to the Korean Peninsula will effectively increase to a near-permanent deployment level. However, as North Korea's retaliatory military demonstrations are also expected to follow, it is anticipated that military tensions on the Korean Peninsula will remain high for the time being.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.