In Denmark General Election, Ruling Left-Wing Majority Collapses... Former Prime Minister Rasmussen Holds Casting Vote

Both Left and Right Camps Fail to Secure Majority... New Centrist Party Founded in June Creates 'Third Party Surge'
Possibility of Centrist Coalition Government Ending Left-Right Division Since the 1970s

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] In the early general election held on the 1st (local time) in Denmark, the left-wing coalition led by the ruling Social Democrats is expected to lose its majority seats. However, the right-wing coalition led by the Liberal Party also underperformed compared to initial expectations, failing not only to secure a majority but also trailing behind the left-wing coalition. Accordingly, the centrist party founded by former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in June is expected to hold the casting vote in the formation of the next government. The centrist party caused a sensation in the general election held just five months after its establishment and is expected to become the third-largest party in the parliament.

According to major foreign media, exit polls released immediately after the close of voting in the general election by Danish broadcasters predicted the Social Democrats' vote share at 23-25%. The Liberal Party's expected vote share was only 14%. The left-wing coalition led by the Social Democrats is expected to secure 85-86 seats. In the 2019 general election, the left-wing coalition won 93 seats, three more than the majority. The total number of seats in the Danish parliament is 179. The right-wing coalition led by the Liberal Party is expected to secure 72-73 seats, fewer than the left-wing coalition. The number of seats for the right-wing coalition is also expected to decrease from 76 seats in the 2019 general election.

With the centrist party led by former Prime Minister Rasmussen causing a stir, the number of seats for both the left and right camps has decreased. The centrist party is expected to secure 16-17 seats with about 9% of the vote share. This means the centrist party will hold the casting vote in the next government formation negotiations.

Rasmussen previously served as prime minister from 2009 to 2011 and from 2015 to 2019 as a member of the Liberal Party. However, after founding the centrist party, he has expressed a desire to see a centrist government that includes both left and right in this election.

Prime Minister Frederiksen expressed a similar stance. When announcing the early general election on the 5th of last month, she said, "I want a broad government that encompasses both left and right."

Former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Photo by Reuters-Yonhap News

BBC UK predicted that the election results could end the left-right division that has persisted in Denmark since the 1970s and lead to the launch of a centrist coalition government. After the exit poll results were released, the centrist party expressed hope for a government composed of the Liberal Party, the Social Democrats, and the centrist party.

BBC also anticipated that former Prime Minister Rasmussen might leverage his decisive role in forming the next government to argue that he should become the next prime minister. Polls showed that voters preferred Rasmussen over the right-wing coalition's prime minister candidates, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen of the Liberal Party and Søren Pape Poulsen of the Conservative Party.

Although Prime Minister Frederiksen is from the left-wing coalition, she showed right-wing tendencies on immigration issues. She has been evaluated as having sharply shifted the Social Democrats' stance on immigration to the right, which led to the downfall of the Danish People's Party, known for its hardline stance on immigration. The right-wing People's Party, which advocated for strengthened border and immigration controls, caused a sensation in the 2015 general election by securing 21.1% of the vote and becoming the second-largest party in parliament after the Social Democrats. However, in the 2019 general election, it fell to the third-largest party with 8.7% of the vote and received its worst result this time, potentially being pushed out of parliament. Exit polls predict the People's Party's vote share will barely exceed the 2% threshold required to enter parliament.

Frederiksen, who took office as Denmark's youngest-ever prime minister in 2019, gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic with firm quarantine measures. However, her decision in November 2020 to cull all 17 million minks in the country after a COVID-19 variant was found on mink farms sparked controversy.

In June, a Danish parliamentary committee judged that the government's mink culling decision lacked legal legitimacy and devastated Denmark's fur industry. Denmark is the largest fur exporter in Europe.

Facing the so-called Mink Scandal crisis, Prime Minister Frederiksen announced last month that the general election, originally scheduled for June next year, would be held seven months earlier.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.