[Initial Insight] Amid Growing Calls for Nuclear Balance, Where Is the 'Nuclear Umbrella' That Will Protect Korea?

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] "Can you sacrifice New York to protect Paris?"

In 1961, French President Charles de Gaulle asked U.S. President John F. Kennedy this question and then withdrew from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to pursue independent nuclear development. This one statement by de Gaulle clearly illustrates the fundamental limitations of the U.S. 'nuclear umbrella' system. More than 60 years later, Seoul is asking a similar question as North Korea is determined to carry out its 7th nuclear test.

The National Intelligence Service forecasts that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test around the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for the 8th of this month (local time). Signs indicating a high likelihood of an imminent nuclear test by North Korea are being detected in various places. The Yongbyon nuclear facility continues to operate, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated there is evidence that North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test. President Yoon Suk-yeol also said in his policy speech to the National Assembly last month, "It is judged that preparations for the 7th nuclear test have already been completed."

In response to North Korea’s determination to proceed with the nuclear test, voices calling for South Korea to pursue a ‘nuclear balance’ are growing louder. The emergence of the need for ‘tactical nuclear redeployment’ within the ruling party is part of this nuclear balance argument. Kim Ki-hyun, considered one of the next party leadership candidates, appeared on a radio program and raised his voice, saying, "Whether it is tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear sharing, or independent nuclear possession, all possible means must be mobilized." Another leadership candidate, Cho Kyung-tae, sparked controversy by mentioning tactical nuclear deployment in his constituency. Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, an out-of-parliament leadership candidate, also advocated for tactical nuclear redeployment and independent nuclear armament.

The reason ‘tactical nuclear redeployment’ is a hot issue is due to the limitations of the nuclear umbrella mentioned above. Jeong Jin-seok, emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, raised doubts on his social network service (SNS) last month, asking, "If North Korea destroys Busan Port with tactical nuclear weapons, will the U.S. really retaliate with nuclear weapons?" This is a logic similar to that of de Gaulle, who led France to nuclear armament. Recent public opinion polls show that nearly half of the Korean public respond positively to tactical nuclear redeployment or independent nuclear development.

Practically, the discussion on tactical nuclear redeployment has not progressed due to concerns that it could lead to withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and international isolation. Yoon Sang-hyun, a People Power Party lawmaker who served as chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, predicted, "Unimaginable international, diplomatic, and economic isolation will occur." For the same reason, the U.S. opposes it. Philip Goldberg, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, pointed out last month, "Do not doubt the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence. (Tactical nuclear redeployment) is an irresponsible and dangerous talk." Nevertheless, within the ruling party, statements doubting the U.S. commitment continue to emerge. Han Ki-ho, chairman of the ruling party’s Special Committee on North Korea Nuclear Crisis Response, said, "We think the U.S. will help, but if it is not in the U.S.’ national interest, they will not help. If we do not take measures to survive ourselves, no one will help."

The 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korea and the U.S. will be held in the U.S. on the 3rd. The rapidly changing situation is drawing even more attention. At this meeting, discussions will be held on the operation and deployment of various strategic assets capable of deterring North Korean provocations, as well as on strengthening extended deterrence. Korean citizens still recall the past ‘de Gaulle question’ in their minds. Is there really no groundbreaking solution that can dispel the concerns of the Korean people?

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.