COVID-19 Cases Near 60,000... Experts Warn of 7th Wave and Twin-demic (Update)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] With nearly 60,000 new daily COVID-19 cases emerging, there is a growing observation that we have effectively entered the early stage of the 7th major wave. The emergence of variants with higher transmissibility and better immune evasion than the dominant domestic strain BA.5 is identified as another factor that could increase the scale of the 7th wave.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the 1st, 58,379 new COVID-19 cases (58,311 domestic and 68 imported) were added, bringing the total cumulative cases to 25,615,667. The number of new cases surged by 39,869 (3.15 times) compared to the previous day (18,510), when fewer tests were conducted over the weekend. This is the first time in 46 days since September 16 (51,848 cases) that daily cases have reached the 50,000 range.

Compared to a week ago on the 25th of last month (43,742 cases), the number increased by 14,637, and compared to two weeks ago on the 18th (33,221 cases), it rose by 25,158. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Infectious Diseases Department at Korea University Guro Hospital stated, "It is reasonable to say that we are effectively at the beginning of the 7th major wave." Jeong Ki-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team and advisor to the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Committee, said in a briefing the day before that "If COVID-19 cases suddenly increase on a certain day and this trend continues, it can be confirmed as the start of the 7th wave." The reproduction number for the fourth week of October (23?27) was 1.09, exceeding 1 for two consecutive weeks following the previous week (1.09). A reproduction number above 1 indicates the spread of the epidemic.

The number of critically ill patients hospitalized remained the same as the previous day at 288, which is a 21% increase compared to the weekly average (October 23?29, 238 patients). The bed occupancy rate, which had been maintained at around 18?19% since early October, rose to 24.5% on this day. COVID-19 deaths increased by 15 from the previous day, reaching 33. The severe case rate over the past five weeks rose from 0.12% to 0.19%, and the fatality rate increased from 0.06% to 0.09%. Jeong emphasized, "Although the numbers may seem small, the relative increase in severe case rate and fatality rate by 50% each means that health authorities need to be vigilant." He also urged vaccination, noting that "the proportion of confirmed cases among high-risk groups aged 60 and over is increasing."

Concerns also arise as the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variant viruses, which have stronger immune evasion and transmissibility than the dominant BA.5, are increasing their share domestically. Professor Kim pointed out, "The timing of detection of variants like BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 in the US and Europe, which have led the global dominance, coincided with the lifting of mandatory PCR testing for international arrivals in our country." He added, "With over one million people gathering at the Seoul International Fireworks Festival and the complete removal of outdoor mask mandates, the early start of the 7th wave was predictable."

Influenza is also spreading strongly. According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency's 'Infectious Disease Sentinel Surveillance Weekly Report,' the proportion of patients showing flu-like symptoms per 1,000 outpatients was 7.6 during October 16?22 (week 43), the highest since February 2020. This figure far exceeds the epidemic threshold of 4.9 for this season. The number of suspected flu patients among infants and adolescents (ages 1?18) increased by 25.1%, from 23.9 (week 42) to 29.9 (week 43). Since influenza typically spreads in the order of infants → young adults → middle-aged → elderly, there is speculation that the flu epidemic may worsen further in the near future.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.