Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Likely to Step Down

SCMP Reports Replacement of 4 out of 7 Members in China's Top Power Body Standing Committee
Wang Yang Mentioned as Successor to Hu Jintao's Premier Position but Uncertain

[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Cho Young-shin] The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 18th that four out of the seven members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China will be replaced. SCMP also stated that about half of the Central Committee members will be replaced.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Standing Committee is the highest decision-making body in China, and the seven members of the Standing Committee are effectively considered to lead China. The power structure of the Communist Party of China consists of the General Secretary (one person), the Standing Committee (seven people), the Political Bureau members (25 people), and the Central Committee members (204 people).

The current Standing Committee members are Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (also President of the State and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, hereafter referred to as President), Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council, Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Wang Huning, Secretary of the Party Central Secretariat, Zhao Leji, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and Han Zheng, Vice Premier of the State Council (in order of rank).

According to SCMP’s report, four out of the six members excluding President Xi will be replaced.

The Communist Party of China will elect the General Secretary at the first plenary session of the Central Committee (the 1st Plenum) on the day after the closing of the 20th National Congress, on the 23rd, and simultaneously announce the Standing Committee and Central Committee members.

SCMP reported that Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee (72 years old), and Han Zheng, Vice Premier (68), will retire according to the "seven up, eight down" (七上八下) principle, which means those aged 67 remain in office, and those aged 68 retire.

Regarding Premier Li, although he is 67 years old, the constitution limits the premiership to two terms, so he must step down this time. SCMP cited sources saying that while Premier Li may take on other positions after retirement, it is highly likely that he will choose to retire from politics altogether.

SCMP explained that three of the four members stepping down have been decided, while the remaining one is still uncertain. Both Chairman Wang and Secretary Wang are the same age as Premier Li. Secretary Zhao is 65 years old.

SCMP pointed out that whether Chairman Wang will retire could be the biggest point of interest. SCMP reported that foreign media are mentioning Chairman Wang as a possible successor to Premier Li. Chairman Wang, along with Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, is part of the Hu Jintao faction. Premier Li is also from the Hu Jintao faction. This is why there has been speculation about Chairman Wang becoming Premier. Considering that former President Hu Jintao attended the opening ceremony of the 20th Party Congress on the 16th and sat right next to President Xi, the possibility of Chairman Wang becoming Premier cannot be ruled out.

SCMP explained that if Chairman Wang steps down, competition for the Premier position will intensify.

There is also interest in who will fill the four vacant Standing Committee seats. Ding Xuexiang, Director of the Party Central Office, is considered the top candidate. Ding is known as a close aide to President Xi.

Also expected to take a seat is Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai, who is known as a former aide and close confidant of President Xi. Chen Min'er, Party Secretary of Chongqing, is also a strong candidate. SCMP added that Vice Premier Hu’s chances of promotion are low. It is also possible that four to five of the six Standing Committee members, excluding President Xi, will be filled by President Xi’s appointees.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.