[The Editors' Verdict] A Turbulent Month That Will Decide the Fate of the Korean Peninsula

Xi Jinping Facing Third Term, US-China Strategy Intensifies
Biden's America First Grows Stronger Ahead of Midterm Elections

On the 7th (local time), the semiconductor export restrictions against China announced by the Biden administration were exquisitely timed and detailed. China is preparing for the 20th Party Congress on the 16th, where President Xi Jinping’s third term will be decided. This week-long congress will outline the blueprint for Xi’s long-term rule. The semiconductor export restrictions seem intended to strike a blow to the ambitious semiconductor development efforts led by Xi while naturally provoking internal resistance within the leadership.

Xi Jinping’s third term at this congress is almost certain. The question is whether he will join the ranks of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Public attention is focused on whether Xi can earn the title of “People’s Leader.” Mao Zedong is the only leader in China who has been called “Leader.” If Xi obtains the title of Leader in addition to his roles as State President, General Secretary of the Communist Party, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (Commander-in-Chief of the People’s Liberation Army), it would lay the foundation for lifelong rule following his third term. However, if his positions remain unchanged with only a third term or are even reduced, the uncertainty of China’s political system could become more pronounced.

The semiconductor export restrictions also take into account the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 8. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested in this election. Currently, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both chambers, but there is a strong possibility of a power shift in Congress. Based on current trends, the Republicans are expected to gain the majority in the House. If the Democrats lose the Senate majority as well, President Biden will face a difficult remaining two years and his reelection prospects will be uncertain.

President Biden’s top priority now is the midterm elections, which are crucial to his political fate. To expand his support base, he has no choice but to follow former President Donald Trump’s “America First” strategy. The recently controversial Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the current semiconductor export restrictions can be understood in this context. It is a strategy to hit China, which is seen as stealing American jobs.

China’s 20th Party Congress and the U.S. midterm elections are directly linked to the power structures of both countries. However, this is not just a bilateral issue. The whole world is focused on these two political events because the international situation is shaking, depending on or regardless of their outcomes.

If Xi Jinping’s third term is confirmed after this congress, he will immediately look ahead five years. China’s strategy toward the U.S., aiming not just for parity but for overtaking, will escalate into a stronger confrontation during Xi’s third term. There are also predictions that Xi will begin preparations for Taiwan’s unification by 2027. To secure his long-term rule, Xi, who needs achievements comparable to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, is likely to focus even more on Taiwan’s unification.

The Biden administration’s containment of China will also become more overt ahead of the 2024 presidential election. It is expected that pressure on allies such as South Korea to join these efforts will intensify.

North Korea is not missing this chaotic opportunity. Experts believe North Korea may conduct its 7th nuclear test between China’s 20th Party Congress and the U.S. midterm elections. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world is plunged into chaos, and now another turbulent period is approaching.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.