NYT "Putin Most Dangerous When Cornered... 'Brinkmanship Game' with the West"

[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] "'Putin cornered' is 'the most dangerous Putin.' The anecdote of young Putin, cornered by a rat in the stairwell of a slum apartment in Saint Petersburg, wielding a stick and being attacked by the rat, still serves as a great lesson in his life."

On the 21st (local time), The New York Times (NYT) reported that after more than seven months of the Ukraine invasion war, Russian President Vladimir Putin's issuance of a reservist mobilization order was described as 'an effort to create a turning point for a counterattack.' It stated that President Putin, realizing the unfavorable situation in the Ukraine war, took the drastic step of conscripting his own citizens to avert the crisis.

Recently, the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive has entered a new phase. Having completely seized control of Kharkiv province, the Ukrainian forces reclaimed most of the northern areas including the village of Bilohorivka in Luhansk province, which was under Russian occupation, dealing a critical blow to Russia's occupation of Donbas.

In this situation, President Putin expressed his determination to continue the war. He abruptly issued a mobilization order for 300,000 reservists, stating, "We will mobilize all means to protect Russia," and claimed that the West is applying 'nuclear blackmail' to Russia, warning of a strong response in case of emergency.

In response, U.S. President Joe Biden directly criticized, "(This war is) a very blatant war chosen by one person," and said, "This war aims to extinguish Ukraine's right to exist as a nation and the right of the Ukrainian people to exist," adding, "(Wherever he is, whatever he believes, he) must cool the blood," launching a fierce counterattack.

NYT assessed that probably since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago, U.S. and Russian leaders have never confronted each other so openly and sharply over the risk of nuclear war, marking the start of a brinkmanship game between the U.S. and Russian leaders, both deeply wounded by the war.

It also pointed out that even though Ukraine and the West currently hold an advantage in the war, that advantage is by no means safe. It quoted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's remarks urging the U.S. and Western allies to use all possible means to help Ukraine without causing an uncontrollable escalation.

However, some skeptical analyses suggest that the drastic measure of the mobilization order may not be effective. It is argued that the process of training and organizing reservists takes a long time, and given that Russia's military strength has weakened to the extent of reaching out even to Iran and North Korea, it is unlikely to have a substantial and immediate effect on the battlefield.

The U.S. CNN network viewed the military mobilization order as part of President Putin's attempt to secure the initiative and restore his political standing. In his announcement, Putin emphasized Western threats and framed the goal as 'protection' rather than 'escalation,' which CNN interpreted as an effort to justify the mobilization order and to boost Russian patriotic sentiment.

This coincides with Russia's urgent push to hold referendums for annexation across the occupied territories. Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven, analyzed that President Putin is using the referendums to justify the mobilization order. He mentioned that bad news is filtering back from the Ukrainian front to the Russian mainland, saying, "The morale of the public is soon the morale of the military."

French author Michel Eltchaninoff, who wrote the book 'Inside Vladimir Putin's Mind,' said, "In the past, Russia won defensive battles resisting Napoleon and Hitler," and interpreted that "from a psychological perspective, the most important thing President Putin has done this time is to claim that the Ukraine war is also a defensive battle." Eltchaninoff explained, "It was once an invasion war, but now it is a concept of defense against Western attempts to divide."

There is also a forecast that the likelihood of President Putin actually using nuclear weapons is low. Professor Schmidt explained that if President Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons, NATO would intervene, resulting in the loss of Russian forces, so the risk of this becoming a reality is low.

Former French Ambassador to Russia Sylvie Bermann analyzed, "The nuclear threat is considered a bluff, but since some see it as very dangerous, it serves as a means for President Putin to intimidate the West and highlight divisions related to arms supplies to Ukraine."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.