Russia postpones Kherson annexation referendum... Will Ukraine's counterattack succeed?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russia announced that it will temporarily suspend the planned referendum for the annexation of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, which it occupied last March. The suspension is presumed to be due to the difficulty in defending Kherson amid a large-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian military, drawing attention to how the war dynamics will change going forward.

According to TASS news agency on the 5th (local time), Kirill Stremousov, the military-civil deputy head of the Russian administration in the Kherson region, announced in a statement that the referendum planned for September will be temporarily suspended. Stremousov explained, "For several weeks, Ukrainian forces have been shelling the road bridge crossing the Dnipro River near Kherson city, making it impossible for vehicles to pass," adding that the referendum cannot be conducted under these circumstances.

Earlier, Russian authorities had planned to hold referendums in the regions occupied by their forces, including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk, on whether to merge with Russia, coinciding with the Russian local elections scheduled for the 11th of this month.

This referendum method was also used when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. At that time, Russia forcibly occupied Crimea, where many pro-Russian residents lived, and proceeded with a referendum claiming an overwhelming majority supported annexation, subsequently enforcing the annexation of Crimea. The international community does not recognize the results of that referendum and considers Crimea to be Ukrainian territory under international law, but Russia's effective control has significantly strengthened since the referendum.

In particular, Kherson is a strategic key area connecting the eastern Donbas region and Crimea, and Russia had been preparing for a referendum to annex it as Russian territory since May. However, as the Ukrainian counteroffensive intensifies and Russian forces begin to retreat, it is presumed that the referendum plans have encountered setbacks.

In the Kherson region, the Ukrainian military has blocked major supply routes and isolated Russian forces, making the counteroffensive effective. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated, "The Ukrainian military has isolated Russian forces by cutting off major bridges, ammunition depots, and communication lines in Kherson, and with intensified counterattacks in Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces in other regions are finding it difficult to assist the troops stationed in Kherson."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.