[Good Morning Stock Market] KOSPI Lacks Upward Momentum, Will the 'Waiting Game' Continue?

Fed Beige Book and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Scheduled
8th 'Four Witching Day'... Supply-Demand Volatility May Increase
Investors Expected to Be Cautious and Watchful Ahead of Chuseok Holiday

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Myunghwan Lee] This week, the domestic stock market is expected to show a cautious trading trend ahead of the Chuseok holiday. Investors are anticipated to adopt a wait-and-see attitude ahead of major events such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book (economic outlook report) release and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting.

Domestically, with no clear upward momentum, volatility in supply and demand may increase ahead of the 'Quadruple Witching Day' (simultaneous expiration of futures and options) scheduled for the 8th. As the market closes during the Chuseok holiday, investors' cautious sentiment may grow, potentially leading to reduced trading volume.

Kim Seokhwan, Researcher at Mirae Asset Securities
"A cautious market ahead of Beige Book and ECB... Worth paying attention to oil companies"

The domestic stock market is likely to continue a cautious trading trend amid the absence of clear upward momentum. Recently, the domestic market has seen concentrated selling by foreigners and institutions amid unfavorable domestic and international conditions such as U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports for artificial intelligence (AI) to China and a slowdown in Korean exports, with individual investors continuing net buying alone. The won-dollar exchange rate remains above 1360 won, continuing to negatively affect foreign demand.

With the U.S. stock market closed on the 5th (local time) for Labor Day, major events such as the Fed's Beige Book release on the 7th, the ECB monetary policy meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the 8th, and the European Union (EU) energy ministers' meeting on the 9th are expected to increase investors' cautious sentiment. Domestically, since the simultaneous expiration of futures and options is scheduled for the 8th, it is necessary to monitor factors that could become variables in the market.

As upward pressure on international oil and natural gas prices continues to rise, sustained interest in related oil and utility companies is expected. However, since the spectrum of companies in this sector is not broad domestically, alternative investments through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may also be considered.

Han Jiyoung, Researcher at Kiwoom Securities "Investors' caution and watchfulness will lead to stagnant index movement"

This week, the domestic stock market is expected to show a cautious trading trend. This is due to uncertainties in the energy market such as oil prices caused by sudden negative factors from Russia, the ECB monetary policy meeting, Apple's new product launch, the Fed Beige Book, and Chair Powell's speech, all scheduled as external events. The weekly KOSPI forecast range is 2380 to 2450.

The domestic market is expected to experience increased volatility in supply and demand surrounding the simultaneous expiration of futures and options. Due to cautious sentiment aimed at preparing for possible external market uncertainties during the Chuseok holiday closure, some investors may reduce their positions, leading to an overall decline in domestic market trading activity.

Considering this, the domestic market this week is likely to see a stagnant overall index movement as caution and watchfulness around domestic and international events intertwine. Differentiated stock price movements are expected among specific themes such as solar power, shipbuilding, defense, and Apple-related stocks including the iPhone value chain centered around the new product launch.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.