"Flu Emergency This Time Before Autumn Resurgence" ... Concerns Over 'Twin-demic'

New Daily Cases Drop to 100,000s but Severe Cases and Deaths Reach Peak
Relaxed COVID-19 Measures May Accelerate Flu Season

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the resurgence of COVID-19 shows a declining trend, concerns are emerging about a 'twindemic' this fall, where COVID-19 and influenza (flu) could spread simultaneously. The sixth wave of COVID-19, which began in the summer, has continued for a long time with tens of thousands of new daily cases, and it is predicted that it may coincide with the early winter flu season or that another resurgence could spread around October to November after the current wave subsides, potentially leading to large-scale infections alongside the flu.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 27th, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported at midnight the previous day was 101,140, marking the lowest Friday figure in the past four weeks.

This week, the number of new cases has shown a clear decreasing trend compared to the previous week. From the 20th to the 27th, the daily new cases were 129,366 → 110,909 → 59,025 → 150,219 → 139,324 → 113,371 → 101,140, averaging 114,765 cases per day.

However, the number of critically ill patients, which typically lags new cases by 2 to 3 weeks, reached 575 on the same day, the highest number in 122 days since April 26 (613 patients). This is also the highest level since the resurgence began in early July. The number of deaths from COVID-19 the previous day was 81, with the recent weekly average nearing 74 deaths per day.

Because of this, there is a forecast that if COVID-19 cases rise again after the Chuseok holiday next month, up to 20,000 high-risk patients could occur daily.

Jeong Ki-seok, Chair of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, said in a briefing on the 26th, "Typically, testing decreases during holidays and cases increase after the holidays end. If the current daily cases around 100,000 increase further, about 20% of total cases, or 20,000 high-risk individuals aged 60 and above, could occur daily."

Jeong also stated, "To accommodate 20,000 high-risk patients, at least 500 or more medical institutions are needed," urging the establishment of a rapid diagnosis and treatment system. He emphasized the need for about 250 public health centers and 300 one-stop clinics in local hospitals and clinics to be evenly distributed nationwide to provide prompt testing and prescriptions for high-risk groups, and to raise the prescription rate of oral antiviral treatments to about half.

He also pointed out the necessity of measures to distinguish between general flu patients and COVID-19 patients in emergency rooms during the Chuseok holiday. Jeong said, "Unlike last year, flu cases are increasing this year, and there is a challenge in distinguishing whether a feverish patient has the flu, COVID-19, or another febrile illness," adding, "It is essential to communicate with emergency medicine doctors on-site and thoroughly discuss the medical management process for febrile patients."

Even if the current COVID-19 resurgence gradually stabilizes, another resurgence could occur around November. This is because natural immunity among the large number of people infected during the Omicron wave in March and April is expected to wane significantly by late September to December, leading to a substantial decrease in overall population immunity.

In particular, since COVID-19 prevention measures have been relaxed this year, the flu season is also expected to arrive earlier than usual.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.