Movement of North Korean Missile Unit Detected... Provocation Possible Again

North Korean Workers' Party Chairman Kim Jong-un inspected the Strategic Forces Command on the 14th and received a report from Strategic Forces Commander Kim Rak-gyeom on the plan for a 'Guam encirclement firing,' according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 15th. (Photo by Yonhap News)

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] During the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield' (UFS), movements of North Korea's missile unit, the Strategic Force, have been repeatedly detected, raising growing concerns about the possibility of strategic provocations.

According to intelligence authorities on the 25th, vehicle entries and exits were consecutively detected at missile production facilities in Kaechon County, South Pyongan Province, and in Pyongyang city. Factory No. 118 in Kaechon County is responsible for developing ballistic missile engines, while Factory No. 125 in Pyongyang handles missile assembly. This suggests that missile development and assembly activities are actively underway.

This is also related to North Korea currently conducting its summer training exercises. Considering that the period overlaps with the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, North Korea's training is expected to continue until early next month. The possibility of missile provocations under the pretext of its own training has increased.

Our intelligence authorities believe that North Korea is simultaneously conducting missile production and mobile tactical training with wartime scenarios in mind. North Korea has tested nearly all of its missiles 17 times in the first half of this year to check their performance.

North Korea appears likely to launch missiles regardless of the occurrence of COVID-19. Although the first COVID-19 case was reported on May 12, and the highest emergency quarantine system was declared, on the same day, three short-range ballistic missiles were fired from the Sunan area in Pyongyang toward the East Sea.

In particular, on the 62nd anniversary of 'Sun Gunjeol,' commemorating Kim Jong-il's military-first politics, North Korea praised Kim Jong-il's development of 'defense industry' as a major achievement and emphasized its status as a nuclear-armed state. This is why there are assessments that North Korea could soon press the nuclear test button. The situation is just over a month before the North Korean regime's founding day (September 9) and the Workers' Party founding day (October 10), which North Korea has historically chosen for nuclear tests. Chairman Kim, who has only the 'political decision' on a nuclear test left, is expected to weigh the optimal timing while monitoring the reactions of allies China and Russia, as well as the level of response from the United States, considering both domestic and international environments.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.