Health Authorities: "Confirmed Cases to Decrease Within 1-2 Weeks... Severe Cases and Deaths to Increase for 2-3 More Weeks" (Comprehensive)

Infection Reproduction Number Decreases from 1.18 to 1.06 ... BA.5 Domestic Infection Detection Rate at 95.3%
Non-Capital Region COVID-19 Risk Level 'High' for 3 Consecutive Weeks

On the 17th, when the number of new COVID-19 cases surged to over 180,000, citizens were waiting for tests at the screening clinic of Songpa-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight that day, there were 180,803 new COVID-19 cases. The number of confirmed cases nearly increased by 100,000 compared to the previous day as the holiday ended. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] Even if the spread of the COVID-19 resurgence turns to a decline this week or next week, health authorities predict that the number of critically ill patients and deaths will continue to increase for another 2 to 3 weeks.

Im Sook-young, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters' situation management team, said at a regular briefing on the 23rd, "The speed of the recent outbreak has slowed down, so there is a possibility that it will turn to a decline around this week or next week," adding, "It is difficult to accurately predict the speed and scale of the decline after the peak of the outbreak, but I think it will gradually decrease."

Earlier, health authorities had forecasted by synthesizing predictions from various experts that this outbreak might peak in August with an average of 200,000 confirmed cases per day. Im said, "Currently, the outbreak is progressing within the previously predicted range."

Even if the number of confirmed cases decreases, the number of critically ill patients and deaths is expected to continue increasing for the time being. The peak of critically ill patients and deaths is expected to be around early September, with approximately 800 to 900 critically ill patients and 100 to 140 deaths, respectively.

Im said, "Deaths and critical illnesses appear with a time lag compared to the increase in confirmed cases," and "Critically ill patients and deaths may increase a little more for about 2 to 3 weeks." Jeong Ki-seok, chairman of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, also said the day before, "The current COVID-19 outbreak is expected to peak around this week and then gradually decline," adding, "Even after this outbreak passes, a 'big wave' (large-scale outbreak) may return in October to November when the immunity of the majority of the population decreases."

Im added, "The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and several experts have also predicted a resurgence in the fall and winter," noting, "There are likely several factors such as immunity waning, seasonal factors, and the emergence of new variants."

The weekly number of confirmed cases in the third week of August (14th to 20th) averaged about 127,000 per day, an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous week. The infection reproduction number (Rt) was 1.06, down 0.12 from 1.18 the previous week, but it remained above 1 for eight consecutive weeks. Im explained, "The infection reproduction number has slightly decreased, and we are in the peak phase where the increase in confirmed cases is slowing down."

By age group, the average daily incidence rate was high among younger groups such as 0-9 years old (292.6), people in their 20s (288.9), and teenagers (279.6). However, due to an increase in infections in vulnerable facilities and the waning effect of the third vaccination, the size and proportion of the high-risk group aged 60 and over increased from 198.6 (3.4%) the previous week to 225.2 (3.7%) last week.

Last week, the number of new critically ill patients was 463, a 2.9% increase from the previous week, and deaths were 414, a 25.5% increase from the previous week.

The proportion of suspected reinfection cases among confirmed cases during the week of the 7th to the 13th was 6.65%, up 0.55 percentage points from 6.10% the previous week. As of midnight on the 14th, among 20,979,145 confirmed cases, 237,486 were suspected reinfections two or more times, recording an incidence rate of 1.13%. This means that 1 out of every 100 cumulative confirmed cases is a reinfection case.

Last week, the weekly COVID-19 risk level was assessed as 'medium' nationwide and in the metropolitan area for the third consecutive week, and 'high' in non-metropolitan areas. The Central Disease Control Headquarters explained the background of the assessment, saying, "The total number of confirmed cases and confirmed cases aged 60 and over are increasing, the trend of critically ill patients and deaths continues, and especially the increase in confirmed cases aged 60 and over in non-metropolitan areas raises concerns about the burden on medical response capacity."

According to the analysis of the detection rate of Omicron sublineages, the detection rate of the currently dominant BA.5 variant last week was 93.8%, up 5.9 percentage points from 87.9% the previous week, surpassing 90%. The domestic infection detection rate of BA.5 was 95.3%, and the detection rate of imported cases was 90.9%. BA.2.3 and BA.2 recorded detection rates of 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The BA.2.75 variant, known as the 'Centaurus variant,' was additionally detected 21 times last week (7 domestic cases and 14 imported cases), bringing the cumulative total to 76 cases (16 domestic and 60 imported).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.