Lee Deuk-pyo's Victory Rate, Entry into 'Bimyeong-gye' Leadership... Last-Minute Variable in Opposition Primary

Democratic Party Convention Heading to the Final Stage
Vote Share and Supreme Council Composition Expected to Be Key Variables

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] The Democratic Party's national convention to elect a new party leader is approaching its final stage. Amid the clear trend of ‘Eodaemyeong (Anyway, the leader is Lee Jae-myung),’ the key points to watch in the final moments are the vote share, the composition of the Supreme Council members, and the results of the public opinion polls.

In the current situation of the Democratic Party, Candidate Lee’s final vote share holds significant meaning. If Candidate Lee surpasses a 70% vote share by combining the opinion polls and delegate votes, it could accelerate the party’s consolidation ahead of the next general election. As of the party member voting conducted until the 21st, Candidate Lee secured an overwhelming first place with a cumulative vote share of 78.35%. This is more than three times the vote share of his competitor, Representative Park Yong-jin (21.65%).

In particular, if Candidate Lee achieves a vote share in the 70% range, surpassing former leader Lee Nak-yeon (60.77%), who was elected with the highest vote share since the founding of the Democratic Party, he will secure a strong support base as the party leader with the highest vote share. The variable lies in the voting results from the Seoul and Gyeonggi regions, which will be announced on the 28th. Opinion polls targeting party members and the public, as well as delegate voting, remain. If Candidate Lee maintains a vote share close to 80% in the opinion polls as before, a vote share in the 70% range is also possible.

The Supreme Council race has been shaken by Representative Yoon Young-chan, a non-Lee Jae-myung (non-Myung) faction candidate, withdrawing after declaring support for Representative Song Gap-seok, raising interest in whether there will be changes in rankings. This could determine whether the pro-Lee faction will dominate the five elected Supreme Council seats or if even a minority of the non-Myung faction will gain entry.

Currently, the candidates in the winning zone for the Supreme Council election are Jeong Cheong-rae (26.40%), Ko Min-jung (23.39%), Seo Young-kyo (10.84%), Jang Kyung-tae (10.84%), and Park Chan-dae (9.47%). Among them, only Ko Min-jung is classified as a non-Myung faction candidate.

Candidate Song, the only non-capital region candidate representing Gwangju Seo-gu Gap district, significantly raised his vote share from the low 4% range to 9.09% through last week’s Honam regional primary. Song currently holds a precarious 6th place, just outside the winning zone. However, with Representative Yoon Young-chan’s endorsement, a green light has been lit for Song’s entry into the winning zone.

Representative Jeon Hae-cheol, who belongs to the non-Myung faction, appeared on YTN Radio on the same day and said, “There are still delegate votes remaining. While it is difficult to say definitively that the delegate and party member results will be completely contradictory, historically, delegate voting tendencies have differed from those of party members in past national conventions,” adding, “I think Representative Yoon Young-chan’s withdrawal will have an impact on Candidate Song Gap-seok’s vote share.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.