"Reemergence, Peak This Week Followed by Decline... Possible Return in Oct-Nov as Immunity Wanes"

New COVID-19 Cases Decrease for Two Consecutive Days Compared to Last Week
Chairman Jeong Gi-seok: "Goal is to Manage COVID-19 at Flu Level"

Jung Ki-seok, Chair of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee (left), and Hong Seok-cheol, Committee Member (Professor of Economics at Seoul National University), are holding a COVID-19 response briefing at the Government Seoul Office Building on the 22nd.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The government advisory body, the 'National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee,' predicted that another large-scale outbreak could occur between autumn and early winter when the majority of the population's immunity to COVID-19 declines. The ongoing '6th wave' is expected to peak during this week.

On the 22nd, Committee Chair Jeong Gi-seok stated, "About 18 million people were infected during the Omicron variant surge in March, and their immunity lasts for about six months. October to November is the period when their immunity drops all at once, so a big wave is likely to come around then."

The vaccine effectiveness is similar; among the 33,531,336 people (65.3%) who have received the third dose so far, immunity may decrease over time.

Chair Jeong expressed concern, saying, "The effect of the fourth vaccine dose I received in early August will only last until around December, and those who were vaccinated earlier will have an even shorter duration of effectiveness."

The current resurgence is expected to peak this week and then gradually decline. Chair Jeong said, "The current COVID-19 outbreak will probably peak around this week and then slowly decrease. This judgment is based on projections released by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency."

As of midnight on the 22nd, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 59,046, which is 3,010 fewer than the 62,056 cases reported a week earlier on the 15th. This is the first time in eight weeks since June 27 that new cases have decreased compared to the previous Monday. On the 21st, new cases also decreased compared to the previous Sunday.

As a professor of respiratory medicine at Hallym University, he also expressed the view that COVID-19 will be managed similarly to a second influenza in the future.

Chair Jeong explained, "For influenza, the government issues alerts and administers preventive vaccines to high-risk groups. If influenza is suspected, patients get tested at hospitals, and doctors immediately prescribe treatments like Tamiflu. If the illness is treated, it passes, and if it worsens, hospitalization occurs. COVID-19 is heading down the same track."

He added, "Just as there are few influenza hospitalizations, there is no need for so many COVID-19 hospitalizations as there are now. COVID-19 has weakened significantly, and oral treatments have become available. I hope COVID-19 moves in that direction, and seeing that it actually is, the goal is to manage it at the level of a second influenza."

Meanwhile, the advisory committee announced that it proposed to the government on the same day to establish social and economic indicators related to infectious diseases. Until now, the government has responded to infectious disease crises mainly based on quarantine indicators such as confirmed cases, critical patients, and vaccination rates, but going forward, it aims to create and utilize indicators in social and economic fields.

Hong Seok-cheol, a professor in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University and a committee member, emphasized, "Indicators are needed to assess the impact of infectious diseases on quality of life, such as educational disparities and public mental health."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.