Chuseok and Hangeul Day Consecutive Holidays... Will the Rebound Wave Prolong?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] As domestic COVID-19 cases have been increasing for seven consecutive weeks, the consecutive holidays with increased mobility continuing until October raise concerns that the resurgence may be prolonged.

Due to the summer vacation season, recent mobility has increased compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. According to Statistics Korea, from the 1st to the 7th of this month, nationwide mobility reached 268.58 million trips, a 2.0% (5.34 million trips) increase compared to the same period in 2019. It also rose by 0.3% (690,000 trips) compared to the previous week (July 25?31).

Mobility likely increased further due to the Liberation Day holiday that extended through the day immediately following the weekend. According to the Jeju Tourism Association, from the 12th to the 14th, a total of 140,971 visitors came to Jeju over three days, with more than 40,000 people visiting Jeju daily. Incheon Airport recorded over 70,000 daily users on the 14th for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak.

The problem is that consecutive holidays such as Chuseok in September, Hangul Day, and National Foundation Day in October, which fall adjacent to weekends, are approaching. There are concerns about an increase in confirmed cases along with increased mobility during these periods. In May, after the Omicron wave in February and March, confirmed cases, which had been decreasing, showed an increasing trend for a week starting from the Children's Day holiday.

Currently, Korea's number of confirmed cases per population ranks among the top one or two worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard on the 16th, Korea's weekly confirmed cases per 100,000 people stood at approximately 1,636, ranking second after the Republic of Nauru (1,799). While the resurgence triggered by Omicron BA.5 is stabilizing in Europe and the United States, Korea and Japan are still experiencing an ongoing resurgence.

Not only the number of confirmed cases but also the increase in severe cases and deaths is concerning. The increase in severe cases and deaths, which are the targets of the government's 'targeted quarantine,' has been greater than the increase in confirmed cases recently. As of the 15th, the number of confirmed cases was 1.12 times that of a week earlier (the 8th), but deaths were 1.72 times, and severe cases were 1.60 times during the same period.

The quarantine authorities predicted a new peak of 135,000 to 240,000 cases in August but added that this could be revised depending on the quarantine situation. Baek Kyung-ran, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said, "Although the infection reproduction number slightly increased compared to last week, the overall trend of the epidemic has not changed significantly yet," adding, "Considering the mobility during the vacation season and recent adverse weather conditions, there is a high possibility of fluctuations, so continuous monitoring is necessary."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.