"Peak 110,000 to 190,000 People... Possibility of Winter Re-epidemic"

Fatality Rate Has Decreased but Remains Higher Than Flu
Action-Oriented Infection Prevention and High-Risk Group-Focused Quarantine

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] Health authorities have forecasted that the peak of the COVID-19 resurgence will remain below 200,000 cases. However, concerns remain about a possible resurgence occurring alongside influenza during the winter season.

On the 4th, Baek Kyung-ran, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated, "As the recent number of cases has somewhat declined, we expect the number of cases to remain within 200,000, which is lower than the previously anticipated 250,000," adding, "However, the epidemic may continue for a somewhat extended period."

According to predictive data from the KDCA and Professor Jung Jae-hoon’s team at Gachon University College of Medicine, the resurgence peak is expected to range between 110,000 and 190,000 cases within this month. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, explained, "Even if the peak rises, we expect approximately 110,000 to 190,000 cases, with a median estimate around 150,000."

The possibility of a resurgence during the cold winter months was also suggested. Commissioner Baek said, "Since COVID-19 and influenza are currently co-circulating in the Southern Hemisphere, considering this, we are fully aware of the possibility that both COVID-19 and influenza could spread simultaneously in our country during autumn and winter," adding, "We are preparing plans for both influenza vaccination and COVID-19 prevention and response simultaneously."

Commissioner Baek also emphasized that the Omicron variant has a higher fatality rate than influenza. She stated, "According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the fatality rate of influenza is 0.02%, and according to KDCA data, it is 0.016%," and added, "In contrast, the recent fatality rate for Omicron infections shows a median fatality rate of 0.22% among OECD countries, which is about ten times higher than that of influenza."

However, the authorities explained that South Korea maintains a lower fatality rate compared to other countries overseas, based on its high vaccination rate. Commissioner Baek said, "Compared to the large number of cases in our country, the mortality rate relative to the population is much lower when compared to countries like New Zealand and Japan, which have similar case numbers," and added, "South Korea’s high vaccination rate and efficient healthcare system are exerting strong power to suppress severe cases and deaths." According to Commissioner Baek, South Korea has the lowest total COVID-19 deaths per capita among OECD countries and the second lowest among countries with populations over 50 million.

Based on this situation, health authorities announced that future social distancing measures will focus on infection prevention centered on high-risk groups and adherence to quarantine guidelines. Strengthening proactive testing for workers in nursing hospitals and facilities, and suspending in-person visits are part of the high-risk group-focused quarantine response.

Commissioner Baek urged, "High-risk groups should promptly visit hospitals or clinics upon symptom onset to consult about antiviral prescriptions." She continued, "Although the probability of severe illness is low among younger age groups, there is a risk of transmitting the infection to the elderly, so please strictly follow quarantine guidelines to protect your family and neighbors."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.