After Pelosi's Departure... China's Unprecedented Close Military Drills, Is the 4th Taiwan Strait Crisis Coming?

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (top left), is waving her hand in greeting as she prepares to board her private plane at Taipei Songshan International Airport in Taiwan on the evening of the 3rd.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina, Reporter Kim Hyunjung] Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, who set foot on Taiwanese soil despite warnings from China, has completed all her schedules and left. However, the crisis surrounding the Taiwan Strait is intensifying. Immediately after Pelosi's departure, China began an unprecedented 72-hour military exercise encircling Taiwan.

During the past three Taiwan Strait crises, China had to kneel before the overwhelming U.S. military power. Now, leveraging its strengthened economic and military power, China no longer hides its blatant ambition of 'Great Power Rise.' This is the background for concerns that the crisis will escalate into a fourth-level conflict unlike before.

◆China Fully Encircling Taiwan, Unification Scenario?

The large-scale military exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army, which began in earnest from noon on the 4th, are conducted in six zones surrounding Taiwan. Looking at the released map, three of the six zones are areas that Taiwan claims as its territorial waters. Additionally, one zone is within 20 km of Taiwan's Kaohsiung coast, making it very close. This raises the geographical threat level sharply compared to the third Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-1996.

On the 3rd, while Pelosi was staying in Taiwan, China sent 27 military aircraft including J-11 fighters across the median line of the Taiwan Strait into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Chinese fighter jets crossing this line can reach Taiwanese soil within minutes. The New York Times (NYT) reported, "The possibility of military confrontation begins now that Pelosi has left," and added, "China's military exercises recall the third Taiwan Strait crisis." The Guardian daily diagnosed, "With Pelosi's departure, Taiwan faces the risk of escalating into a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis."

Some analysts suggest that China is effectively implementing a military operation scenario for Taiwan's unification. Retired Taiwanese Major General Shuai Huamin, in an interview with China's Global Times, explained that the six training zones set by the Chinese People's Liberation Army threaten Taiwan's major ports and key shipping routes, aiming for a full blockade of Taiwan. He said, "This blockade pattern could become one of the action options for future military unification."

◆"Pelosi's Visit Added Salt to China's Wounds" Evaluation

This situation inevitably poses a dilemma not only for Taiwan but also for the U.S. and its allies. The NYT stated, "They must decide whether to respond similarly to past Taiwan Strait crises against China," but noted, "Much has changed since the third crisis. China's military power has become stronger and bolder under President Xi Jinping."

There is considerable criticism that Pelosi was more focused on leaving a political legacy and only escalated U.S.-China tensions. The current situation differs from the first to third Taiwan Strait crises when there was an overwhelming power gap between the U.S. and China. It is no longer a situation where the U.S. can force China to submit by military strength.

Paul van der Putten, senior researcher at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, diagnosed that Pelosi's visit actually benefited China. Yale University professor Steven Roach said, "It was like pouring salt on China's exposed wounds," expressing concern that it would escalate U.S.-China tensions and further divide the two countries.

An administration official told the Washington Post (WP), "China has very extensive means to harm Taiwan," adding, "Looking at past cases, China tends to act aggressively and take advantage when it finds an excuse against its opponent. This could happen again this time."

U.S. President Joe Biden, who is in isolation due to a COVID-19 reinfection, convened the national security team on the morning of the 3rd to discuss follow-up measures. Considering his emphasis on "our continued support for a free and open Indo-Pacific" via Twitter, analysts expect the U.S. to maintain its basic stance on the 'One China' principle and push forward head-on. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing that day, "The U.S. neither seeks nor desires a crisis."

On the same day, the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers, including the U.S., issued a joint statement saying, "Aggressive military activities in the Taiwan Strait under the pretext of Pelosi's visit cannot be justified," and warned, "China's escalated response risks increasing tensions and instability in the region."

Front page of Chinese newspaper filled with articles on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Possibility of Political Division in Taiwan Raised

China's military and economic pressure on Taiwan is highly likely to escalate into internal political division within Taiwan. Earlier, China's Ministry of Commerce announced on the 3rd that it would suspend exports of natural sand used for construction materials to Taiwan. On the same day, the customs authority, the General Administration of Customs, also decided to block imports of Taiwanese citrus fruits and refrigerated hairtail fish.

The problem is that Taiwan's fishing and agricultural areas are concentrated in the south, the traditional support base of the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP). If export routes are suddenly blocked and the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers in related areas are affected, the DDP may face political resistance.

China's state-run Global Times published a column titled "Cross-Strait Trade Will Not Serve as a Cash Cow for Taiwan Separatists," acknowledging economic retaliation against Taiwan. As of last year, Taiwan's exports to China amounted to $250 billion (approximately 327.125 trillion KRW), with a trade surplus of $171.6 billion. Taiwan was the largest trade surplus country (including regions) with China last year.

The Global Times said, "Some countries may bring out so-called trade improvement cards to strengthen relations with Taiwan," but questioned, "Do they truly care about the interests of the Taiwanese people?" It also emphasized, "The Taiwan DDP is only interested in political gains by selling the island to external forces without considering the people's interests," and stressed, "The people must realize that supporting separatist forces will lead the island into a dead end."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.