"KOSPI 200 Futures Reach Short-Term Resistance Level"

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Yoon-joo] The KOSPI200 futures index recently reached a resistance level around 319, the high point on June 28, during its rebound phase. Analysts suggest that breaking through 319 could signify an important change.

Jeong In-ji, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, stated on the 20th, "The KOSPI200 futures index saw foreign investors' cumulative net buying positions switch to net selling as of the previous day," adding, "This appears to be a response to short-term resistance."

Researcher Jeong noted, "The volatility index (VKOSPI), which is composed of option implied volatility, has been in a short-term downtrend after breaking below the support level around 21% earlier this week," and diagnosed, "VKOSPI has already been experiencing a process of lower short-term highs since mid-June."

He explained, "If the previous pattern continues, the adjustment target could be around 17.5%. The ratio of put option open interest to call option open interest stands at about 150%, and past short-term highs were formed above 160%, indicating the possibility of further underlying asset price increases."

Researcher Jeong evaluated that the KOSPI200 futures, which rebounded this week, have reached an important resistance level.

He explained, "The long-term downtrend that has been ongoing since August last year formed a stair-step decline structure by repeating short-term sharp drops and medium-term sideways movements," adding, "During this time, the first short-term rebound after a sharp drop failed to break the short-term high in the subsequent sideways phase, causing the long-term downtrend to continue."

The 319-point level corresponds to the high of the first short-term rebound seen at the end of June. Researcher Jeong said, "If this price level is broken, it can be understood as a significant change in the long-term downtrend structure that has been ongoing since August last year," and pointed out, "Foreign investors’ cumulative net buying positions in futures also returned to net selling as of the previous day, suggesting that foreign investors are responding to this burden."

He added, "However, since the index has already recovered up to the 30-day moving average, even if there is a short-term correction, the possibility of a level down in a short period is low," and "Even if it falls again, it is likely that attempts to rise will reappear without breaking the previous low levels."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.