The First Ever Person of Color as UK Prime Minister, or a Female Prime Minister Again After 3 Years?

Sunak, Former UK Chancellor, Leads First Round in Conservative Party Leadership Election
Runoff Vote Competitiveness Key... Fiscal Spending and Tax Cuts Pose Challenges
Second Place Mordaunt Could Overtake... Possible Return of Female Prime Minister After 3 Years

From the left, Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Foreign, Rishi Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for International Trade
Photo by AFP Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Will it be the first-ever person of color as Prime Minister, or a female Prime Minister again after three years?

According to British media including the BBC on the 13th (local time), former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt took first and second place respectively in the first round of voting in the Conservative Party leadership election to select the new leader of the ruling party in the UK.

In the first round of voting conducted among Conservative Party MPs, former Chancellor Sunak and Minister Mordaunt received 88 and 67 votes respectively.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadim Zahawi (25 votes) and former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt (18 votes) failed to meet the cutoff line of 30 votes required to advance to the next round and were eliminated. Thus, the number of candidates was narrowed down from eight to six. The Conservative Party plans to hold the second round of voting on the 14th, and the third to fifth rounds between the 18th and 20th, eliminating one candidate with the fewest votes each time, to determine the final two candidates before the 21st.

If Sunak is elected, the UK will welcome its first-ever person of color and the first Prime Minister of Indian descent. Sunak’s parents are Indian immigrants. If Mordaunt or Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who placed third in this round with 50 votes, wins the leadership election, the UK will enter a new era of female Prime Ministers again, three years after Theresa May stepped down in July 2019.

As predicted by various media outlets, former Chancellor Sunak took first place, gaining a favorable position. However, there are assessments that his competitiveness in the runoff vote is weak, making it uncertain whether he will secure the next party leadership and the position of UK Prime Minister. The final runoff vote between the last two candidates will be conducted by the entire Conservative Party membership, numbering about 175,000, and there is a possibility of Sunak being overturned.

According to a survey released by polling firm YouGov on the same day, Sunak was significantly behind Mordaunt in a head-to-head contest, with 28% to 67%. Sunak also trailed Foreign Secretary Truss in a head-to-head matchup, 35% to 59%. The only candidate Sunak showed a clear advantage over in head-to-head contests was former Foreign Secretary Hunt, who was eliminated in the first round.

On the other hand, Minister Mordaunt led in head-to-head contests against all candidates, including Sunak. This indicates that Mordaunt has stronger competitiveness in the runoff.

According to the odds compiled by British bookmaker Betfair after the first round of voting, Mordaunt’s probability of becoming Prime Minister surged significantly. Mordaunt’s chances surpassed 50%, while Sunak’s dropped to the 20% range.

Sunak’s negative stance on fiscal spending and tax cuts appears to be holding him back.

Sunak was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic, and immediately implemented large-scale fiscal spending policies to respond to the pandemic. This caused a significant increase in the government’s fiscal deficit, and after the pandemic somewhat subsided, he took a negative stance on fiscal spending. During his tenure, he also pushed for a corporate tax increase to restore government fiscal soundness.

Candidates running for party leader all prominently advocated tax cuts to counterbalance Sunak, who was expected to take first place. In contrast, Sunak stated that he would pursue tax cuts only after stabilizing prices.

Sunak also showed differences with Prime Minister Johnson on energy policy due to fiscal deficit concerns. When Johnson pushed for large-scale new nuclear power plant construction to tackle the energy crisis, Sunak pointed out the need for a cautious approach, worried about expanding the government’s fiscal deficit.

However, it remains to be seen what variables may arise during the campaigning period, which could last up to about six weeks after the final two candidates are selected. The Conservative Party plans to elect the next leader before September 5. Attention will also focus on which candidates eliminated in earlier rounds will express support for which finalists. Former Foreign Secretary Hunt, eliminated in the first round, has said he supports Sunak.

In the UK’s parliamentary system, the leader of the majority party becomes Prime Minister, and the leader elected in this Conservative Party leadership election will succeed Johnson as the 78th Prime Minister of the UK.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.