'97 Group' Threatening 'Eodaemyeong'... Key to Overcoming Cutoff and Anti-Myeong Unification

Who Will Pass the Cutoff for 2 Spots?
Focus on the Anti-Lee Jae-myung Unification Card

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] With just over a week left until the candidate registration deadline on the 18th, attention is focused on ① who will survive the 'cutoff' to narrow down the three candidates for the Democratic Party's August 28 leadership election, and ② how the '97 Group (those born in the 1970s and who entered university in the 1990s)' will unify.

The two candidates who pass the cutoff will form a contest against Representative Lee Jae-myung, and depending on the success of the '97 Group' unification, they could demonstrate the strength of a faction that threatens the 'Eodaemyeong (Anyway, the party leader will be Lee Jae-myung)'.

With the party leader candidate registration days (17th-18th) just over a week away on the 11th, the five candidates have effectively entered the 'party leader race.' First, the 'two strong candidates' Representatives Kang Byung-won and Kang Hoon-sik have organizational strength, while the 'two Park candidates' Representatives Park Yong-jin and Park Joo-min have strong support from their fandom bases.

On the 10th, Representative Kang Byung-won visited the Gwangju 5·18 Democratic Cemetery and then met with Gwangju Mayor Kang Ki-jung and district heads in the Gwangju area. Representative Kang Hoon-sik held a meeting with reporters in Daejeon after meeting with Hwang Kyu-young, a founding party elder, on the 9th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Representatives Park Yong-jin and Park Joo-min have high name recognition through their bids for party leadership and presidential candidacy. Representative Park Yong-jin, who ran in the 20th presidential primary on a platform of 'generational change,' is expected to receive strong support in national opinion polls due to his high recognition. Representative Park Joo-min also enjoys support from his fandom base. In a radio interview that day, he said, “(The Democratic Party) has always conducted opinion polls before elections and acted favorably when advantageous and avoided them when not, giving a somewhat floating impression,” adding, “We need to change to a form rooted in values and expand our outreach.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Representatives Kang Byung-won and Kang Hoon-sik receive support from the pro-Moon Jae-in camp and groups like 'The Better Future,' respectively. Representative Kang Byung-won is classified as 'pro-Moon Jae-in' and was elected as a Supreme Council member last year riding on pro-Moon votes. He is again receiving side support from pro-Moon lawmakers. Representative Kang Hoon-sik has a relatively weak factional color but served as the head of the Chungnam Provincial Party Committee and is known to be supported by 'The Better Future,' a large opinion group within the party.

Above all, the influence of the national opinion poll introduced in this preliminary election process is expected to be a variable. Considering that the central committee members' weight is 70%, more than twice that of the national opinion poll, the gap in opinion polls can be overcome by the votes of lawmakers, regional committee heads, and local leaders. However, central committee members, mainly lawmakers and regional committee heads, might choose candidates with a high chance of winning, as seen in the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election and the 20th presidential primary last year.

If two members of the '97 Group' pass the cutoff excluding Representative Lee, it will be crucial to see around which candidate alliances and realignments will form. If unification occurs, a clear anti-Lee Jae-myung front can be established. All four candidates have distinct political colors, and there is little commonality in their support bases, leading to opinions that unification is uncertain. A senior Democratic Party lawmaker told this publication in a phone interview, “After passing the cutoff on their own, there will be discussions about unification within the '97 Group,' but since there are relatively large differences in factions and political orientations among the lawmakers, we need to watch the developments closely.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.