The Democratic Party's Landslide Victory in the 2020 General Election Was Greatly Influenced by 'COVID-19'

Professors Kim In-kyung and Kim Kyu-il Present Paper on Voting During the Pandemic
COVID-19 Impact Behind Democratic Party's Landslide Victory
Prof. Kim Warns Against Politicization of Quarantine Measures

On the 1st, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at Yeonhui-dong 6th polling station set up at Seodaemun-gu Office in Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Seohee Lee] A study has found that the ‘effective COVID-19 control capability’ was a key factor behind the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the general election held on April 15, 2020. This is the first case in which academia has empirically supported a fact that had previously been only speculative, drawing significant attention.

Professor Inkyung Kim of the Department of Economics and Trade at Kyungpook National University and Professor Kyuil Kim of the Department of Economics at Michigan State University revealed a significant relationship between COVID-19 control capability and approval ratings through their paper titled “Voting in a Pandemic: Lessons from the 2020 South Korean National Assembly Election.”

In the April 15, 2020 general election, the Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory over the opposition United Future Party. The Democratic Party secured 163 seats in constituency votes and an additional 17 seats in proportional representation votes, establishing itself as a dominant ruling party with a total of 180 seats. Holding more than three-fifths of the total seats, it gained the momentum to push forward most legislative activities without the opposition’s cooperation, except for constitutional amendments. On the other hand, the United Future Party secured 84 seats in constituency votes and 19 seats in proportional representation votes, totaling 103 seats.

President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating also rose significantly. From January to March 2020, his approval rating fluctuated between 45% and 50%, but during the election week in April, it jumped to 58%.

The Democratic Party’s landslide victory was largely attributed to its ‘COVID-19 management capability.’ The two authors controlled for various factors that could influence election outcomes, such as ▲whether the candidate was an incumbent ▲education level ▲assets ▲criminal record ▲age ▲gender ▲party preference in the respective region, and found that the lower the COVID-19 infection rate in an electoral district, the higher the preference for the Democratic Party candidate compared to the United Future Party candidate.

Furthermore, the authors predicted vote shares by assuming South Korea’s COVID-19 infection rate during the general election (204 cases per million) was five times higher than the OECD average (1,100 cases per million). Analyzing the simulated election results, the Democratic Party won 129 seats and the United Future Party 102 seats out of 231 constituencies. In the actual election, the Democratic Party won 147 seats and the United Future Party 84 seats, with a gap of 63 seats; in the simulation, this gap narrowed to 27 seats. Constituencies where either party did not field a candidate or where minor parties won were excluded from the analysis.

Assuming South Korea’s COVID-19 infection rate was about seven times higher, comparable to the United States (1,550 cases per million), the gap further decreased. In this case, the Democratic Party would have 126 seats and the United Future Party 105 seats, narrowing the gap to just 21 seats.

Additionally, the paper warns that in authoritarian countries or those with underdeveloped democracies, governments may politically exploit quarantine measures to secure victories for the ruling party. This implies the possibility that governments might promote their achievements by spending excessively on quarantine or applying strict regulations for political purposes.

During the recent COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented quarantine policies centered on extreme lockdowns, social distancing, and border controls. The Communist Party described COVID-19 quarantine as a ‘people’s war’ against the epidemic and used media and social networks to publicize it.

Professor Inkyung Kim of Kyungpook National University, one of the paper’s authors, explained, “‘Politicization of quarantine’ is a phenomenon observed worldwide during the pandemic,” adding, “Especially in countries with less developed democracies, there is a high risk that governments may politically exploit quarantine measures.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.