US: "Russia Repeats Kyiv Mistakes in Donbas"... Putin's Excessive Involvement Also a Problem

"Slow Advance and Morale Drop Reduce Combat Power by 20%"
"Putin's Excessive Military Operation Involvement Also a Problem"

Rising Smoke from Artillery in Severodonetsk, a Strategic Point in Donbas, Ukraine
[Image Source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Nayeon] The US daily The New York Times (NYT) recently diagnosed, citing senior US officials, that Russia is intensifying its offensive in eastern Ukraine but is repeating the mistakes of the previous three months.

According to NYT and US Department of Defense officials, the Russian military is growing weary of the slow pace as it occupies Ukraine. These officials assessed that due to this slow advance, morale has declined, reducing combat effectiveness by about 20%. Since the start of the war, they have already lost 1,000 tanks.

President Vladimir Putin’s appointment of General Aleksandr Dvornikov as the war commander in April is seen as an acknowledgment that the Russian military’s initial plans failed.

Commander Dvornikov coordinated attacks between the air force and army, but he has not been seen in the past two weeks, raising doubts about his command of the war.

The Russian air force continues to exhibit risk-averse behavior seen early in the war. After crossing the border for airstrikes, they quickly return to Russian territory instead of lingering in Ukrainian airspace.

Of course, recently, by concentrating firepower in the east, they captured Mariupol after three months of fighting, secured the south connecting to the Crimean Peninsula, and on the 31st advanced to the center of Severodonetsk, a major target.

However, some areas have been retaken by Ukrainian forces. In eastern Kharkiv, despite six weeks of bombardment and siege by Russian forces, Ukrainian troops reclaimed the area.

US and Western officials analyzed that during the first few weeks of the war, Russian forces operated under orders from Moscow without commanders on the ground. Then, in early April, when transportation issues and declining military morale became apparent, General Dvornikov was appointed.

At least after Commander Dvornikov’s appointment, the Russian air force and army in the Donbas region began coordinating and communicating toward their objectives.

However, a military expert from the US-based Institute for the Study of War’s Frederick W. Kagan Middle Threat Project diagnosed, “Because the nature of the Russian military cannot be changed, operations in the east and west are not proceeding particularly differently,” adding, “The Russian military has deep flaws that could not be fixed in recent weeks despite efforts.”

A US official viewed that while the Russian military follows Soviet-style methods, Ukraine has shown agility in adapting to the situation after seven years of training from the US and NATO allies.

After resuming the Donbas offensive, Russian forces bombed cities and towns but did not conduct the sustained armored invasions necessary for territorial occupation.

There is also a perspective that President Putin is still too involved.

Evelyn Farkas, who was in charge of Russia and Ukraine at the Department of Defense during the Barack Obama administration, said, “We are hearing that Putin is becoming more involved.” She added, “If there is a president who interferes with objectives and military operations, we know that is a disaster.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.