US War Research Institute: "Putin's Exit Strategy Will Likely Be a 'Nuclear Threat'"

Analysis Suggests Holding Against Nuclear Threat After Occupied Territory Annexation
US Think Tank: Western Support Needed to Aid Ukraine's Immediate Counterattack

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Nayeon] An analysis has emerged suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin may resort to nuclear threats as an exit strategy for the war in Ukraine.

On the 13th (local time), the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report forecasting that President Putin will annex the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine currently occupied by Russian forces within a few months.

ISW predicted that Putin will use nuclear deterrence, directly or indirectly, to defend the newly incorporated territories as part of Russia.

Currently, the areas expected to be annexed by Russia include the Russian military and pro-Russian rebel-occupied territories in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), Kherson oblast, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.

There is also analysis suggesting that Russia might annex South Ossetia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova, which are controlled by pro-Russian forces, in addition to the occupied Ukrainian territories.

ISW views the annexation of occupied territories as the only exit strategy available to President Putin in this war and considers it the minimum achievement Russia can accept.

Since Russia has justified the war by claiming it is conducting a special military operation to protect residents oppressed by Nazi forces in the Donbas region, annexing even part of the Donbas territories it has occupied would allow Russia to claim it has achieved its objective.

ISW warned that the West must take seriously the scenario of Russia annexing southeastern Ukraine.

ISW expressed concern that "if Russia maintains long-term occupation of southeastern Ukraine, it could cause tremendous damage to the Ukrainian government's long-term viability," adding, "If the Ukrainian forces fail to retake the southeast before Russia annexes it, the situation could become irreversible, similar to the Crimean Peninsula forcibly annexed by Russia in 2014."

It emphasized, "Western support is necessary to help Ukraine launch an immediate counteroffensive."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.