Local Election D-20, Conditions for Victory of Ruling and Opposition Parties: Winning 9 Districts... 'Capital Region, Chungcheong, and Gangwon Decide the Outcome'

Both Minju and People Power Party Aim for Majority
Gyeonggi-do Expected to Be the Biggest Battleground

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the June 1 local elections just 20 days away, both ruling and opposition parties have pledged an all-out effort. Among the 17 metropolitan mayoral posts, both parties are aiming to win half, or 9 seats. Each candidate must complete registration by the 13th for their respective constituencies and will officially begin election campaigns on the 19th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to political circles on the 12th, the People Power Party, which won only 2 seats in the 2018 local elections, is aiming for a majority victory in this local election held immediately after their presidential election win. Kwon Seong-dong, floor leader and co-chairman of the People Power Party’s joint election committee, told reporters that day, "We must secure half of the local power to open an era of balanced and checked local administration." This sets a target of 50%. In the last presidential election, the People Power Party won across the Yeongnam region, the entire Chungcheong region except Sejong, and Seoul. Winning 10 metropolitan mayoral posts would be considered a modest achievement.

The Democratic Party initially set a goal of winning 9 seats in the local elections but recently adjusted it to 8. This marks a change from their overwhelming victory in 14 seats in the previous local elections. Kim Min-seok, head of the Democratic Party’s election countermeasures headquarters, said the day before, "If we win 3 more seats in addition to the 5 where we show polling leads, it will be a victory; surpassing the majority of 9 seats would be considered a complete victory."

Based on the ruling and opposition parties’ analysis and opinion polls, the People Power Party shows strength in 5 Yeongnam region seats and Seoul. The Democratic Party holds an advantage in 3 Honam region seats, Sejong, Jeju, and 5 other areas. Ultimately, the outcome of this local election is expected to be decided in 2 metropolitan seats in the capital area?Incheon and Gyeonggi?and 3 seats in the Chungcheong region?Chungnam, Chungbuk, and Sejong?as well as 1 seat in Gangwon.

By region, the biggest battleground is Gyeonggi Province. Due to its symbolic status as the most populous area, both parties consider it the fiercest contest. Gyeonggi is also crucial because it will determine the most seats in the general election two years later, making it a matter of life and death for both parties. According to a poll commissioned by Gyeonggi Ilbo to Joanne C&I conducted on the 8th and 9th among 801 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Gyeonggi Province, Democratic candidate Kim Dong-yeon holds 44.8%, while People Power Party candidate Kim Eun-hye has 39.2%, showing a close race within the margin of error.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Chungcheong has traditionally been a stronghold for the Democratic Party in local elections, but the voter sentiment flipped in the recent presidential election, which is a variable. For the Chungbuk governorship, incumbent Lee Si-jong is not running for a fourth term, leading to a contest between Democratic candidate Noh Young-min and People Power Party candidate Kim Young-hwan. In Chungnam, Sejong, and Daejeon mayoral races, Democratic candidates Yang Seung-jo (Chungnam governor), Lee Chun-hee (Sejong mayor), and Heo Tae-jeong (Daejeon mayor) are running, expecting to leverage the incumbent advantage. The People Power Party aims to continue the momentum of President Yoon Seok-yeol’s presidential victory, who claimed to be a son of Chungcheong, in the local elections as well.

In Gangwon Province, Democratic candidate Lee Kwang-jae and People Power Party candidate Kim Jin-tae are engaged in a neck-and-neck race according to polls. While Gangwon’s conservative-leaning voter sentiment favored Kim Jin-tae in the presidential election, Lee Kwang-jae, emphasizing his personal appeal, is narrowing the gap with a strong campaign.

The 7 by-elections for National Assembly seats are also a focal point. Former presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, senior advisor of the Democratic Party, is running in Incheon Gyeyang-eul, and former presidential transition committee chairman Ahn Cheol-soo is the People Power Party candidate in Gyeonggi Bundang-gap. Both parties aim to retain their existing seats. The by-elections were held due to resignations of 3 Democratic and 4 People Power Party lawmakers who ran for metropolitan mayoral posts.

Looking ahead, the local elections will ultimately be influenced by the overall atmosphere shaped by the new government’s inauguration, with themes of regime stability and regime check-and-balance, as well as candidate competitiveness. The People Power Party plans to emphasize that winning this local election is essential to continue stable national governance under the current minority ruling situation. In particular, the government is seeking to capitalize on the effects of the new administration by promptly preparing supplementary budgets after its inauguration. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party, just two months after their defeat in the last presidential election, plans to run a nationwide campaign with senior advisor Lee as the head of the overall election committee.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.