[Insight & Opinion] Who Called Lee Jaemyung to the By-Election?

Former Gyeonggi Governor and Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung officially announced his candidacy for the National Assembly by-election in Incheon Gyeyang-eul on the 8th. What seemed unlikely has become reality. Initially, Lee’s supporters were divided into the ‘One Step Forward Faction’ and the ‘One Step Back Faction.’ Many voices questioned whether it was right for Lee to step back while the party and its members were in a very difficult situation. These were the people shouting for ‘One Step Forward.’ On the other hand, there was considerable criticism from those who argued that if he lost the presidential election, he should take some time for reflection and only run when the people call him, questioning whether it was appropriate for a presidential candidate to immediately run for a National Assembly seat. These were the people advocating ‘One Step Back.’

However, it is very difficult to judge ‘which is right’ between these two claims. To find a relatively convincing answer, one must comprehensively consider three layers: Lee Jae-myung’s ambitions, the reality of the Democratic Party, and the structure of Korean politics.

How should we view Lee’s reason for running in the by-election? From a personal perspective, Lee’s strong ‘political ambition’ cannot be overlooked. He likely judged that there is little time to delay if he wants to reach a conclusion within the next five years. Without any experience as a National Assembly member and with a weak base within the party, his chances of winning this by-election are high. This opportunity in Incheon Gyeyang-eul can simultaneously solve these conditions. There is no reason to hesitate.

The same applies from the party’s perspective. If the Democratic Party, which narrowly lost the last presidential election, also loses in this local election, especially in Gyeonggi Province, chaos is inevitable until the next general election in 2024. The size of a major party holding a majority of seats can become a burden. There is a high risk of being trapped in a ‘reckless or incompetent frame.’ Conversely, if the party wins in battleground areas including Gyeonggi Province, a completely different scenario unfolds. The Democratic Party can then create a ‘reckless or incompetent frame’ against the new government led by President Yoon Seok-youl. In this case, the 172 seats will act not as a burden but as a ‘great power.’ Therefore, the Democratic Party leadership has no reason to hesitate.

The structural characteristics of Korean politics also played a decisive role in calling Lee Jae-myung back. This is the ‘camp confrontation structure’ created by the two major party system. After the presidential election, Lee temporarily faded from the public eye, but the side that kept bringing him back into political controversy was the People Power Party. Whenever there were investigations by the prosecution and police, the People Power Party stirred up the atmosphere. They even claimed that the ‘complete prosecution reform legislation’ was to protect Lee. Consequently, the mood within the prosecution gradually shifted as well. Naturally, Lee’s supporters had no choice but to rally. They saw no reason to hesitate to run wherever there was a chance to win, even if only to fight. It was a matter of ‘What’s wrong with our side running?’

Lee’s candidacy for the by-election actually has weak justification. It is too soon for a political move after the presidential election. However, considering the narrow loss by 0.73 percentage points, he prioritized practical benefits over justification. He saw more benefits than expected, which justified Lee’s political ambition and the Democratic Party’s political reality. Furthermore, it elicited an explosive response from supporters. This is the reality of our politics. As long as the two major party system remains, it is difficult to change easily. Politicians’ ambitions and parties’ choices ultimately prioritize practical benefits over justification. Whether it is Lee Jae-myung or anyone else, Korea’s ‘camp confrontation’ binds people and parties. In this regard, the idea that structure, or space, dominates consciousness is not wrong.

Park Sang-byeong (Political Commentator)

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.