Airbnb Faces Valuation Pressure Despite Recovery in Travel Demand

[Asia Economy Reporter Minji Lee] Despite Airbnb's solid first-quarter performance, its stock price has shown a sluggish trend. Although travel demand is expected to recover strongly, since this optimism is already reflected in the stock price, further gains seem difficult.

On the 7th, Airbnb's stock closed at $135.84 as of the 6th (local time). This represents a decline of about 18.12% over the past month.

Airbnb recorded a total booking amount of $17.1 billion in the first quarter, a 67% increase compared to the same period last year, surpassing the market expectation of $16.5 billion. Revenue grew 70% to $1.51 billion, exceeding the expected $1.45 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $230 million, beating the market estimate of $70 million. GAAP-based EPS was -$0.03, outperforming the market expectation of -$0.25. The number of bookings reached 100 million, up 59% from the same period last year.

The company's second-quarter revenue guidance ranges from $2.03 billion to $2.13 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $1.96 billion. High growth driven by reopening and peak season entry, along with profitability improvements from proactive restructuring, are expected to sustain an adjusted EBITDA margin above 10% in the second quarter.

However, despite the strong recovery in travel demand, the stock price has remained sluggish. Concerns have grown about whether the current demand can continue. The ADR (average daily rate), which drove revenue growth alongside strong travel demand recovery until the last quarter, was $158, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. Although it rose compared to the previous quarter ($154), the growth rate is slowing. It showed a 21% increase in Q4 last year, 5% in Q1 this year, and is expected to be flat in Q2.

Jung-han Kim, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, "While strong travel demand recovery has been confirmed, concerns about a peak-out after the peak season may actually increase," adding, "The sector is still burdened by macro issues such as the Ukraine war, Shanghai lockdown, and demand reduction due to persistent inflation."

Currently, the stock trades at a PSR (price-to-sales ratio) of about 12 times for this year, maintaining a high premium compared to OTA (online travel agency) peers. Ji-yong Lim, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, commented, "If the market environment were like in the past (with abundant liquidity), a stock revaluation could have been possible when cash flow turned from negative to positive or free cash flow expanded. However, under a tightening market environment, it is uncertain whether such a stock pattern will appear, making upside difficult."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.