[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will the North Conduct Military Provocations Before the Presidential Inauguration?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Contrary to the military authorities' speculation on the day, there is growing weight to the possibility that the ballistic missile North Korea launched on the 4th was a Hwasong-17 type.

This means that North Korea, after a failure on March 16, attempted a re-launch after 7 weeks but failed to resolve the defect.

At the time, the Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that the ballistic missile launched by North Korea was detected with a flight distance of about 470 km, a maximum altitude of about 780 km, and a top speed of Mach 11. Oniki Makoto, Deputy Director of the Ministry of Defense, stated that the missile is estimated to have reached a maximum altitude of about 800 km, flew about 500 km, and fell outside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

However, some assessments suggest that although a Hwasong-17 ICBM was launched, combustion was interrupted for unknown reasons during the ascent after the first-stage propulsion burned out and the second-stage propulsion ignited.

North Korean media did not report on the missile launch the following day. Typically, North Korea does not announce missile launches if they fail. When the Hwasong-17 launched from Pyongyang Sunan Airport on March 16 exploded in the air at an early stage, North Korean media remained silent.

The military also analyzed that it is more likely North Korea used the Hwasong-15, whose performance has been verified, for the space launch vehicle test launch rather than the Hwasong-17. In an emergency, it is possible that the ICBM was fired at a high angle to reduce its range and detonated at about 100 km altitude over Seoul and the metropolitan area to test a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. Earlier, Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the National Space Development Agency in March and announced plans to deploy a large number of reconnaissance satellites within five years.

There is a high possibility of additional provocations around Pyongyang Sunan in line with President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's inauguration and the South Korea-US summit. The Sunan area is where North Korea has launched Hwasong-15 and 17 ICBMs four times this year. Previously, on February 27 and March 5, North Korea launched the 'monster ICBM' Hwasong-17 from Sunan Airfield and claimed it was a 'space launch vehicle.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.