North Korea Changes Strategy...? "Kim Jong-un Imitating Putin, Becoming More Aggressive"

"Prevent Putin's Failure in Ukraine from Being Followed by North Korea and China"

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un took a commemorative photo with participants of the 90th anniversary parade of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army on the 27th, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 29th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jung-wan] An analysis by a U.S. foreign affairs expert suggests that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is becoming more aggressive by imitating the strategy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded Ukraine.

On the 28th (local time), Josh Rogin, a diplomatic and security columnist for The Washington Post (WP), wrote in a column titled "Kim Jong-un is adopting Putin's Ukraine strategy" that "the delusional totalitarian dictator Kim Jong-un threatens to attack his neighboring democratic countries," and that "this perfectly described Putin three months ago."

Rogin stated, "It is no coincidence that Kim Jong-un’s rhetoric has become more aggressive after Putin invaded Ukraine," adding, "Putin is rewriting the geopolitical textbook on risk, deterrence, escalation, and nuclear brinkmanship tactics, and his prot?g? Kim Jong-un is paying close attention."

Rogin also said, "While the U.S. focuses on the crisis in Europe, Kim Jong-un is raising the stakes in East Asia."

He introduced a remark by Professor Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University: "North Korea initially considered deterrence and self-defense when it started its nuclear program decades ago, but now it is working on a program that could someday conquer South Korea. It seems North Korea’s strategy has changed."

Rogin mentioned that some South Korean North Korea experts are cautious because Kim Jong-un is imitating President Putin’s strategy toward Ukraine in two ways: adopting an offensive conventional military posture while simultaneously changing the nuclear doctrine to prevent the West from intervening in potential conflicts between the North and South.

He reported that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has conducted four ballistic missile test launches, including two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), has shown signs of preparing for nuclear tests, and recently even hinted at the possibility of preemptive use of nuclear weapons.

Amid this, Rogin criticized, "The Biden administration is repeating the Obama administration’s 'strategic patience,' which is essentially just waiting for North Korea to come to the negotiating table."

Considering that North Korea is rapidly shifting the military balance of power in its favor, Rogin advised that the U.S. should respond to South Korea and Japan’s requests for deeper military cooperation.

However, he added, "That alone is not enough," pointing out, "The truth is that if Kim Jong-un is willing to take the risk of military retaliation, military power alone cannot stop him."

Rogin said, "One clear lesson from Putin’s war in Ukraine is that only a firm defensive alliance with clear commitments can deter aggressive dictators."

He also reminded that more than 28,000 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea, and unlike Ukraine, South Korea is an official U.S. ally.

However, following former President Trump’s talks of troop withdrawal and President Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, Kim Jong-un may have reached the same conclusion as Putin?that "the U.S. is no longer determined to defend distant democratic countries at its borders."

He emphasized, "The best way to stop any dictator threatening neighboring countries is to ensure Putin fails in Ukraine so that leaders in North Korea or China do not follow suit." Yet, he added, "But Kim Jong-un’s increasing aggressive actions and statements cannot be ignored."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.