China pressures Hong Kong with 'Strongman' approach... Possibility of strengthened public security rule

Deputy Prime Minister John Lee to Run Solo... Leading Candidate for Next Administrative Minister

'One Country, Two Systems' May Face Procedural and Legal Threats

John Lee, former Chief Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong. (Photo by AFP Yonhap News)

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] A hardliner with a police background has been virtually confirmed as the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong. Observers predict the beginning of a stronger public security regime. With the end of the era of civilian governance led by administrative officials on the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's sovereignty handover, there are forecasts that the "One Country, Two Systems" (一國兩制) principle may decline.

According to foreign media on the 17th, former Chief Secretary John Lee has run unopposed in the Hong Kong Chief Executive election scheduled for July 8 next month. As a figure strongly supported by the pro-China camp, the prevailing reaction is that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. In this election, conducted through an indirect election by the Election Committee, he must secure a majority of support, and the votes from the committee members who have rallied for his candidacy have already surpassed the majority.

Former Deputy Chief Secretary Lee, a former police officer, was known for his hardline crackdown on the 2019 anti-government protests in Hong Kong and for actively enforcing the Hong Kong National Security Law thereafter. It took less than a week from his declaration of candidacy to confirmation of his unopposed run. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, "The process that used to take months in previous Chief Executive elections ended in just a few days this time. The speed at which John Lee went from a potential candidate to the sole candidate is shocking." It added, "Amid escalating pressure China faces over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and criticism from the UK and the US that civil liberties in Hong Kong are retreating, it is analyzed that China chose a 'strongman' to fight back."

Wilson Chan, an international relations expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said, "Strongman politics is unfolding." He analyzed, "In the dilemma caused by ongoing US-China tensions and Hong Kong's COVID-19 prevention policies that diverge from global trends, John Lee's toughness has made him the figure most likely to achieve the results desired by the Chinese government compared to others."

The pro-China camp refers to this year, the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover, as the "second handover" or a "new beginning." The next Chief Executive will take office on July 1, the anniversary of the handover. A pro-China politician told SCMP, "John Lee's loyalty to China is already well known through his career in the police and security bureau," adding, "The Chinese government appointed him as Chief Secretary last year with the plan to groom him as a potential candidate for the next Chief Executive."

Former Deputy Chief Secretary Lee pledged that if he becomes Chief Executive, one of his top priorities will be the enactment of a Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, which China is pushing forward. Since the Hong Kong National Security Law, directly created by China in June 2020, over 170 people including key figures from the democratic camp have been arrested, and many social organizations and media outlets have shut down, leading to what is being called a public security state. Lee intends to prioritize enacting laws that supplement this law.

Western countries criticize the Hong Kong National Security Law as a tool to gag opposition, and the Hong Kong pro-democracy camp points out that the law's "red lines" are unclear, causing fear.

Hong Kong, along with Macau, is one of China's two major "Special Administrative Regions," and China claims that both regions are governed under the One Country, Two Systems principle. The UK and China agreed in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration (Hong Kong Handover Agreement) that Hong Kong, a former British colony, would be handed over to China in 1997 and maintain its existing system for 50 years until 2047 under One Country, Two Systems. Over the past 25 years, Hong Kong's Chief Executives have been pro-China businesspeople or long-serving administrative officials. Although there have been criticisms of "bureaucracy" and "pro-business policies," it is also evaluated that because these leaders emphasized procedures and regulations, the One Country, Two Systems principle was maintained to some extent.

Former Deputy Chief Secretary Lee has promised to create a "results-oriented government," signaling a different style of administration from before. Some express concerns that this could lead to the disregard of procedures and the rule of law, and that Hong Kong might degenerate into a "police state."

Professor Steve Chang of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, expressed skepticism about Lee's capability as Chief Executive, saying that Lee is responsible for turning the Hong Kong police from a respected organization into one most despised by the public during the crackdown on anti-government protests. He said, "The leader Hong Kong needs now is someone who can unite society while gaining social trust and maximize the legacy of so-called 'high autonomy' in a new environment." He added, "The Chinese government chose the person they wanted, but Hong Kong people may face a situation where their interests are less cared for than under Carrie Lam's administration." He also pointed out, "John Lee showed during the crackdown on anti-government protests that he could break conventions and rules for the sake of results."

On the other hand, Lau Siu-kai, Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong-Macau Research Association, said, "The next five years are very important from China's perspective," and predicted, "One Country, Two Systems is the most important for Hong Kong's prosperity and stability, and if it is smoothly implemented under John Lee, it will continue beyond 2047."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.