Shanghai lockdown to continue for a while... cumulative infections may reach 700,000

Peak as early as this week... Negative outlook suggests continuation until mid-June
If it continues until June, Shanghai's Q2 GDP will be adversely affected

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] There is a forecast within China that the number of COVID-19 cases in Shanghai could reach 700,000. There is also a prediction that the spread will be contained not in May but in June. Initially, the dominant forecast was that the COVID-19 case surge in Shanghai would stop by May due to China-style quarantine policies such as a full city lockdown.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The state-run Global Times cited a model developed by Yao Maosheng, a professor at the School of Environmental Science and Engineering at Peking University, reporting on the 15th that the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Shanghai could reach up to 700,000.

The Global Times reported that the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai is expected to peak this week and then gradually subside. Professor Yao predicted that after mid-June, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Shanghai will fall below 100. This implies that the current outbreak will have a considerable impact on Shanghai's economic growth rate in the second quarter.

Professor Yao explained that if the lockdown had not been implemented in a timely manner, the daily new confirmed cases in Shanghai could have reached 200,000, and that the authorities' infectious disease control measures have significantly slowed the transmission speed of the Omicron virus.

Chen Xi, a professor at Yale University's Department of Public Health, said, "Most of the new confirmed cases are being found in locked-down areas or quarantine facilities," explaining that this means the lockdown and preventive measures are functioning normally. He added that the daily new confirmed cases in Shanghai will soon reach an inflection point.

The Public Health Research Institute of Nankai University in China released positive research results indicating that the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai will end by the end of next month.

Professor Huang Sunzhong of Nankai University predicted that the daily new infections in Shanghai will peak at 29,087 this week and then decrease.

The Global Times, citing quarantine experts, said that the number of confirmed cases in Shanghai will peak this week but that control measures in Shanghai will not be relaxed for the time being.

The Global Times warned that there have been eight cases of delivery workers becoming infected during the delivery process in Shanxi Province. The media reported that eight people were confirmed infected during deliveries in two cities in Shanxi Province, leading to the suspension of delivery services in those cities.

Wu Huanwei, deputy director of the Disease Prevention and Control Center, explained at a press briefing held the previous day that infections are also occurring during the delivery and supply of goods.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.