[AKyeong Poll] 44.8% vs 37.8%... Party Support Rate Shows Democratic Party Leading

Different from Seoul Public Opinion in the March 9 Presidential Election
Strong Support of 59.6% Among Traditional Base of 40s
Strong in All Regions Except Gangnam East Area

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Hyun-ji] Ahead of the June 1 local elections, a survey showed that the support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea among Seoul voters is ahead of the People Power Party beyond the margin of error.

On the 6th, Asia Economy commissioned Realmeter to conduct a public opinion poll targeting 1,015 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul on the 4th and 5th (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response). When asked "Which party do you support or have a more favorable impression of?", 44.8% responded that they support the Democratic Party, while 37.8% said they support the People Power Party. The gap between the two parties' support rates was 7.0 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

This is quite different compared to the sentiment in Seoul during the March 9 presidential election. In the last presidential election, Seoul voters showed 4.83 percentage points more support for People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-yeol (50.56%) than for Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung (45.73%). Since then, the People Power Party's support base has loosened, and the Democratic Party's support rate is rising again as it views the local elections as an opportunity for a turnaround.

The Democratic Party's consolidation of its support base is evident in the age group data. The Democratic Party showed strong support among those in their 40s, its traditional base, at 59.6%, and also led the People Power Party among those in their 30s (49.2%) and 50s (46.2%). The People Power Party led among those aged 60 and over (46.1%) and also received 42.9% support from the youth aged 18 to 29, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the Democratic Party's 40.7% in that group.

By region, except for the Gangnam East area, which includes the three Gangnam districts, the Democratic Party showed higher support than the People Power Party in all other regions. The Democratic Party recorded 50.4% in the Gangbuk West area (Mapo, Seodaemun, Yongsan, Eunpyeong, Jongno, Jung), 46.6% in the Gangbuk East area (Gangbuk, Gwangjin, Nowon, Dobong, Dongdaemun, Seongdong, Seongbuk, Jungnang), and 42.5% in the Gangnam West area (Gangseo, Gwanak, Guro, Geumcheon, Dongjak, Yangcheon, Yeongdeungpo). The People Power Party received 38.0%, 31.5%, and 40.0% support in these respective areas. In the Gangnam 4 districts (Songpa, Gangnam, Seocho, Gangdong), the People Power Party led with 43.7%, while the Democratic Party had 40.8%. In the last presidential election, candidate Yoon led in 14 out of the 25 autonomous districts in Seoul.

Following were the People Party with 8.1%, the Justice Party with 2.3%, and other parties with 1.7%. The proportion of respondents who answered "I do not support any party" (4.6%) and "I don't know" (0.6%) was 5.2%, representing the non-partisan group.

How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, the 4th and 5th, attempting to contact 80,938 voters aged 18 and over residing in Seoul. A total of 1,015 completed responses were collected, with a response rate of 1.3%. The survey was conducted using an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, using a random digit dialing sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.