IPCC "To Limit Temperature Rise to 1.5 Degrees, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Must Be Reduced by 43% by 2030"

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Dongwoo Lee] An analysis has emerged stating that to prevent global warming and keep the average temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% compared to 2019 levels. The report warned that without efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, the average global temperature could increase by 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era.

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the 'Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group III Report' containing these findings on the 4th (local time). The IPCC report is a highly reliable document serving as a key reference for international climate change negotiations such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and as input for global implementation reviews. This report comes eight years after the Fifth Assessment Report published in 2014.

To Keep Temperature Rise Below 1.5°C, Emissions Must Be Cut by 43% by 2030

The report analyzed that to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 'below 2 degrees,' greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 27% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and to maintain the rise below '1.5 degrees,' emissions must be cut by 43% by 2030 and by 84% by 2050.

Although the climate crisis is at a severe level, global greenhouse gas emissions have not yet peaked. The report projected, "If global warming is limited to 1.5 to 2 degrees, greenhouse gas emissions will peak by 2025." The total net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions worldwide increased continuously from 2010 to 2019. Seventeen percent of the total carbon dioxide emitted since industrialization (1850?2019) was emitted during this period.

Assuming current climate change policies continue, the global temperature is expected to rise by 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted before the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) held last November are also unlikely to keep the global average temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius this century.

Emissions Can Be Reduced by Up to 70% Through Demand-Side Measures Alone

Through this report, the IPCC proposed feasible climate crisis mitigation measures across sectors such as energy, industry, urban areas, AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use), CO2 removal (CDR), and transportation.

The IPCC analyzed that demand-side responses alone?such as vegetarian diets, reducing food waste, responsive heating and cooling, electric vehicles, walking, cycling, car sharing, and public transportation?could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70% by 2050 without changes to existing supply. It added that differentiated responses are possible due to significant per capita emission differences based on socioeconomic status.

The IPCC stated that to limit the global temperature rise to below 1.5 or 2 degrees by 2030, investment in climate crisis mitigation sectors must increase by up to 3 to 6 times compared to current levels. The elimination of fossil fuel subsidies for coal, oil, and other fossil fuels was evaluated as a measure that could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 1 to 10% by 2030.

This report will be incorporated into the comprehensive report to be approved at the upcoming 57th IPCC plenary session scheduled for September, along with the previously approved Working Group I and II reports and the '1.5°C Global Warming' special report. This material will be used as a basis for international discussions such as the 'UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties' to be held in Egypt in November and the 'Paris Agreement implementation review' next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.