Unpredictable COVID-19 Peak... Could the 'Antibody Prevalence Survey' Provide a Clue?

Health Authorities Prepare to Expand 'Antibody Prevalence Survey'
UK, a 'Data Powerhouse,' Conducts Weekly Antibody Tests on 20,000 People
Can Gauge Immunity Within Specific Population Groups
Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo's Key Project: 'Scientific Quarantine'

Ahn Cheol-soo, Chairman of the Presidential Transition Committee, is speaking at the 5th Emergency COVID-19 Response Special Committee meeting held on the afternoon of the 30th at the 20th Presidential Transition Committee's main conference room in Samcheong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Ju-hyung] The government plans to conduct a 'COVID-19 Antibody Prevalence Survey' targeting 10,000 citizens, accepting the recommendation of President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's Presidential Transition Committee (Transition Committee). Antibody prevalence surveys have been actively conducted mainly in advanced countries such as the United Kingdom, and based on this data, more sophisticated quarantine policies can be established. There is also an expectation that it will greatly help predict the trend of COVID-19 variant virus outbreaks, which are difficult to pinpoint the peak of domestically.

On the 30th, Ko Jae-young, spokesperson for the Central Disease Control Headquarters of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated at a regular briefing, "The Transition Committee and KDCA have agreed to expand the antibody prevalence survey and are preparing specific plans." The quarantine authorities plan to recruit 10,000 people by age and region, including children and adolescents, to conduct a large-scale antibody prevalence survey.

Earlier, on the 22nd, Transition Committee Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo declared that he would implement 'scientific quarantine' differentiated from the current government's quarantine policy, stating, "We will conduct regular antibody prevalence surveys."

Regarding this, Chairman Ahn explained, "It is sampling like a public opinion poll," adding, "If the antibody positivity rate is regularly surveyed, accurate quarantine policies can be established by age group and region."

Currently, the government already surveys COVID-19 antibody prevalence quarterly through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. However, the newly proposed survey method appears to be based on cases from advanced countries such as the UK.

Data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) 'COVID-19 Dashboard' population antibody prevalence survey. It is detailed by age and region, allowing the general public to access it. / Photo by ONS official website capture

The UK, which possesses outstanding capabilities in collecting and analyzing quarantine-related data, has been regularly surveying antibody prevalence through the Office for National Statistics since the end of 2020. Unlike Korea, which conducts surveys quarterly, the UK surveys about 20,000 citizens weekly, classifies data in detail by age and region, and makes it publicly accessible for general citizens to view.

Antibody prevalence refers to the proportion of the population group that has COVID-19 antibodies. COVID-19 antibodies are acquired either by vaccination to gain immunity or by recovering from a COVID-19 infection. Antibody prevalence surveys are considered important quarantine data because they can gauge the overall 'immunity' of the nation much more comprehensively than the vaccination rate.

Antibody prevalence is expected to become an even more important indicator when deciding future quarantine policies. This is because viruses such as the Omicron variant, known to have a much faster transmission rate than other variants, have emerged, making it difficult to predict the peak of outbreaks using existing forecasting methods.

On the morning of the 27th, citizens waiting for testing at the temporary COVID-19 screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. / Photo by Yonhap News

Previously, the government predicted around the 23rd that the daily average number of confirmed cases would peak at 310,000 to 370,000 and then shift to a decline. However, on that day, the number of new confirmed cases was 490,881, significantly exceeding the government's forecast, and seven days later, as of midnight on the 30th, the number of new confirmed cases was 424,641.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University’s Department of Preventive Medicine wrote on Facebook recently, "The Omicron variant spreads very rapidly, and policy changes seem to be reflected in an even shorter time," adding, "Currently, the form has become one where predictions are presented and policies are changed, so predictions become outdated models the moment they are announced," expressing the difficulty of infectious disease forecasting.

In this regard, on the 30th, Chairman Ahn held a briefing at the Transition Committee office in Jongno-gu, Seoul, explaining the activities of the 'COVID Emergency Response Special Committee,' emphasizing, "In the Omicron era, (antibody prevalence surveys) have become much more necessary than before," and "That is why the government decided to conduct an antibody positivity rate survey with a scale of 10,000 people."

He added, "Because it is scientific data that helps quarantine management, I have insisted that this is necessary," and "The foundation of the scientific quarantine we have advocated is being built one by one."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.