US European Commander Admits Overestimating Russian Military Power and Underestimating Ukraine... Lack of Intelligence Gathering

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A senior U.S. military commander acknowledged that U.S. intelligence agencies have overestimated Russia's military power and underestimated Ukraine's military capabilities in relation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, pointing out a lack of intelligence gathering. With concerns over further provocations by Russia, the U.S. government plans to find improvements to minimize intelligence gaps.

According to CNN on the 29th (local time), General Todd Walters, commander of the U.S. European Command, stated at a U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that "U.S. authorities have overestimated Russia's military capabilities and underestimated Ukraine's defensive capabilities," adding, "This can be seen as a result of gaps in intelligence collection."

At the hearing, when Republican Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi asked, "Given the misjudgments regarding Russia and Ukraine, is there a problem with our intelligence gathering?" General Walters responded, "That could be the case." He continued, "As we have done in the past, once this crisis is resolved, we will review comprehensive after-action measures across all fields and sectors," emphasizing, "We will identify where the weaknesses lie and seek improvements."

Earlier, U.S. intelligence agencies had predicted that Russia would soon gain air superiority and could capture Kyiv within days at the start of the conflict. This was based on figures showing Ukraine's air force was only about 20% of Russia's, and that Ukraine's ground forces were at a significant disadvantage in terms of troop numbers, personal armaments, and artillery. Based on these intelligence assessments, the U.S. government even offered to assist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in fleeing the country.

However, after the conflict began, Russia's air force and army failed to conduct effective combined arms operations, while Ukrainian forces mounted effective defenses, resulting in a prolonged war. Conversely, the Russian military has faced manpower and supply shortages after more than a month of fighting, making it difficult to maintain supply lines. On the northern front near Kyiv, Ukrainian counterattacks have been intense. This has led to criticism that U.S. intelligence agencies did not properly gather initial intelligence.

Earlier this month, at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimated Ukrainian resistance before the invasion. On the same day, Scott Berrier, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), who also attended the hearing, said, "The intelligence community made several guesses about Putin's plans, which turned out to be very flawed," pointing out, "President Putin doubted Ukraine's will to fight, but they have fought bravely and honorably, doing the right thing, so it was a poor assessment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.