Zelensky "Donbas Issue Negotiable"... Is Ukraine's Division Becoming a Reality? (Summary)

Russia's 'Donbas Partition Plan' Draws Attention as a Breakthrough in Peace Talks
"Putin Considering Dividing Ukraine Like North and South Korea"
Donbas Pro-Russian Rebels Announce "Resident Vote for Joining Russian Federation Soon"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the 5th round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia approaches, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has hinted at the possibility of compromise regarding the Donbas separatist issue. Russia has also declared a strategic shift to focus on Donbas. There are expectations that the division of Donbas could open a breakthrough in the peace negotiations. However, some express concerns that Russia might divide Ukraine as a whole, similar to the division between South Korea and North Korea.

◆Will a breakthrough in peace talks be found?

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

According to AFP on the 27th (local time), President Zelensky said in an approximately 90-minute video interview with Russian independent media, "I want to compromise with Russia regarding the Donbas issue," and added, "Ukraine's neutral status could also be discussed in negotiations with Russia." This indicates a willingness to compromise on Russia's previously non-negotiable stance on the separation and independence of Donbas.

On the Russian side, ahead of the peace talks, there are indications that future military operations will focus on the Donbas region, with a possible reduction in offensives in other areas. According to Russian TASS news agency, Sergey Rudskoy, Chief of the Operations Directorate of the Russian General Staff, stated in a press release the day before, "The special operation underway in Ukraine has entered a new phase aimed at the complete independence of Donbas, and attacks on regions other than Donbas may decrease in the future."

Accordingly, there is analysis that both sides are seeking the division of the Donbas region as a breakthrough in the 5th peace talks. On the same day, Ibrahim Kalin, spokesperson for the Turkish Presidency, told CNN in an interview, "The Russian and Ukrainian negotiation teams have agreed to hold face-to-face talks in Istanbul, the capital of Turkey, starting on the 29th." It is known that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to hold the 5th peace talks during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer told the BBC, "As the season turns to April, the permafrost is melting more severely, and floods may occur frequently from May, making it more difficult to maintain Russian military supply lines," and analyzed, "The Putin regime's initial goals of occupying all of Ukraine and regime change will be temporarily suspended, showing a strategy focused on Donbas."

◆"Putin is considering the Korean scenario"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, concerns have been raised that Russia may demand the division of all territories occupied by its forces beyond the Donbas region. On the same day, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated in a press release, "There is credible evidence that President Putin is considering a 'Korean scenario' for Ukraine," strongly criticizing, "This means creating Russian-controlled zones in Ukraine and dividing the country like South Korea and North Korea."

If Russia proceeds with referendums in various occupied areas to join the Russian Federation, concerns about the actual division of Ukraine are emerging. According to the British Guardian, Russia held a referendum on the separation of Crimea during its occupation in 2014, which passed by an overwhelming margin. Russia then used the claim that Crimea wished to join the Russian Federation as a justification for the war.

In particular, the pro-Russian separatist-controlled areas in Donbas and southern Ukraine near Crimea have a Russian-speaking population accounting for more than 30% of the total population. Moreover, most ethnic Ukrainian residents have already fled, so if a referendum is held, it is expected to overwhelmingly favor the Russian side.

The Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), a pro-Russian separatist force in Donbas, has already announced plans to hold a referendum to join the Russian Federation soon. Leonid Pasechnik, head of the LPR, stated in a press release that "Soon, voters may be asked in a referendum to exercise their constitutional right to support becoming part of Russia."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.